The IMF has cut its global growth forecast in the October update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) on the protectionist threat and the emerging markets situation. The Fund also reflects how those countries who confronted the last financial crisis with a better fiscal position were those countries who suffered smaller falls in GDP.
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Last week, the Superior Administrative Tribunal in Münster decided not to allow RWE to clear the Hambach forest for mining. This decision, which was not expected (the share value of the company fell almost 8%), could imply a significant reduction in the extraction of lignite, and thus in RWE’s electricity production. Strategists at Santander consider three different scenarios for a solution:
The Spanish Ministry of Finance rules out a new specific tax hypothecated to finance pensions. In fact, the majority of developed countries has reformed their pensions systems basing them on various pillars (public/private; obligatory/voluntary) especially the nordic countries. Only Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain maintain a pensions system based solely on obligatory social security contributions.
If the scenario of a Bolsonaro victory is fulfilled in the second round, analyst Paul Greer from Fidelity expects that highly necessary fiscal reform of Brazil will be extremely difficult to achieve given that he will have to work with the centralist parties and the PT to approve any law.
Acerinox recently celebrated its Capital Markets Day, in which it confirmed its strategy based geographical diversification of its plants (distributed over 4 continents), a policy of differential investment, the control of costs and strengthening its balance sheet, with a special stress on the generation of cash. Its exposure to the US, where the fundamentals remain solid, amounts to around 45% of its sales.
Last week Grifols received a negative recommendation from the global broker UBS, referring to the potential negative impact the commercialisation of a new alternative treatment for autoimmune diseases could have on its sales of intravenous immunoglobin.
Signs of a future increase in inflation are becoming increasingly visible. Natixis IM explains some of these global clues. First it is US long-term inflation outlook, which is currently situated around 2-3% and trending clearly higher.
Italy’s budget deficit of – 2.4% of GDP for the period 2019/2021 presented by the government increased the debt premium of 50bp to 280 bp and a 4% fall in the FTSE-MIB.This rise in the risk premium impacts negatively on the Italian banks in fundamentally three ways.
The government of India took control of Infrastructure Leasing & Financials Services (IL&FS) last week in order to ensure its liquidity and solvency as well as to preserve stability in the financial system. For analysts at Julius Baer, “this should alleviate concerns on the money, debt and capital markets but does not equate to a bail out.”
On Sunday 7 October, all Brazilians between the ages of 18 and 70 are being called to the polls to elect their next President .”This is an important election because the future administration will have the responsibility to tackle Brazil’s growing fiscal imbalances, and this will require challenging structural reforms”, analysts at AXA IM say.