Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) | Most analysts and economists believe global growth will remain solid, despite political and geopolitical uncertainties, in the second half of 2017. Economics and corporate earnings will be the main drivers for the markets.
Fernando Rodriguez | Francisco García-Paramés is an asset manager who has made ‘Value Investing’ popular in Spain thanks to the good results obtained during the last 20 years. He is Spain’s Warren Buffet.
The Corner | June 8, 2015 | After all, equities are supported by the cycle and the upturn in business results. On the other hand, bond markets are negatively affected by the improvement of the economic outlook and a scenario where deflation is not considered anymore.
May 6, 2015 | UBS | April European cash equity volumes remained flat but were +27% ahead of the same month last year. In the US, combined average daily NYSE and NASDAQ value traded was down -4% m/m and -6% y/y.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | The designs of the markets are unfathomable. Mario Draghi might forget the QE idea and the British housing sector might collapse. These are some of the Saxo Bank’s ludicrous forecasts for 2015. A year ago they claimed there would be a default in the Russian debt and the collapse of the oil price, and they were right. Nonetheless, most of the experts that talked to The Corner agree on a scenario for 2015 led by the ECB’s quantitative easing, the oil price reduction and low interest rates.
MADRID | The Corner | While bonds are considering a world without growth nor inflation, equities seem much more optimistic. On their Monday comment, JPMorgan analysts point out that, on a global level, monetary policies are still increasingly more expansionary in aggregate form.
BERLIN | Alberto Lozano | Some figures were already announcing during the last weeks that Germany was losing momentum. Its equity market also was the 3rd worst performer since the European market peaked on June 10th, so the GDP fall of 0.2% in the largest economy of the Euro area is not a surprise. A negative effect from the balance of exports and imports and a fall in construction are the main causes for this slight GDP decrease. However, both households and government consumed slightly more than in the previous quarter. Therefore, growth in consumption and imports might be a positive signal for the Europe’s largest economy in the coming quarters of 2014.
MADRID | The Corner | The EU is considering harder sanctions on Russia after the downing of a Malaysian airliner in Ukraine. What are the effects of the current and potential further sanctions on the Russian economy and, in general, on Emerging Markets (EM) sovereign external debt? Co-CIO Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management’s Asoka Wöhrmann weighs in. (Illustration: Iain Green at The Scotsman)
MADRID | The Corner | “We have been living in an unusually low volatilities -both implied and realized- environment,” JP Morgan’s Fernando Cavia argues. But the last two weeks analysts are seeing a change of trend: protection is gaining fans among European institutional investors who see some threat to equities’ potential.