BARCLAYS | In our view, achieving the FOMC’s target of 2% PCE inflation may require a substantial undershoot on the unemployment rate ( to 4% if not below ). Should the unemployment rate remain near current levels or should inflation expectations drift lower, the FOMC would be unlikely to hit its inflation target over the foreseeable future.
There is a definite clash between investors and economists over the US economy. According to Intermoney’s Spanish analysts, markets are looking for reasons to take apart the thesis about the country’s resilient activity, arguing that moderate growth is insufficient. Then there are the economic purists, including many Fed members, who are confident the US recovery is sustainable.
And what if there is no lift-off in September?
US consumer confidence surged to 101.5 in August thanks to the positive evolution of the labour market.
FOMC members need more evidence that inflation is moving toward their goal and the improvement in the labour market is sufficient and sustainable.
An upcoming Fed interest rate hike now seems to be one of markets’ main focal points and concerns.
The Corner | April 12, 2015 | Earnings season is warming up on Wall Street. During the week the major US banks will present their results (tomorrow, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo), which will impact the course of American stocks in the short/medium term. Should US companies show a pessimistic picture with their 1Q earnings, that would mean the US economy is in worse shape than predicted. But are these expectations part of a wider game?
MADRID | March 24, 2015 | By J.P Marín-Arrese | On face value, Europe is recovering from a bad spell while the US is growing at an invidious rate. However, the wild currency swing may yet destabilise the global economy. Janet Yellen’s remarks on the threat of an overvalued dollar were designed to preserve a balanced performance, and indeed sparked a quick reaction in exchange rates. Yet, as the ECB unfurls its massive quantitative easing programme, volatility in the currency markets could inflict further damage.
By Barry Eichengreen via Caixin | The reform response to the financial crisis was mild compared to that of the Great Depression, but all is not lost.