The markets are becoming increasingly sceptical about Trump’s ability to enforce any coherent economic policy mix. Even if his advisors in this field are seasoned bankers, the White House is rapidly losing its grip on critical decision-making areas, such as the budget stance.
US monetary policy
The outstanding labour market performance in the US has triggered widespread speculation of a Fed rate hike as early as September. Nonetheless, most new jobs are part-time, while the hourly wage increase lags well behind its pre-crisis pace.
James Alexander via Historinhas | We often hear from both the right and the left that the relative lack of growth in the US is mostly due to supply issues, in particular changing demographics. Those baby-boomers retiring have created a new stagnation. The US Bureau for Labor Statistics (BLS) has consistently encouraged this view. There’s really nothing that can be done about it.
The FED not only held unchanged its rates in its last FOMC meeting last week. It plunged investors into utter disarray by delivering an extremely dovish message on future action. The prospect of a hike this year loses steam while bewildered markets pull back to the waiting game.
Barclays | We expect the Fed to remain on hold at its September meeting, deferring rate hikes while it assesses renewed risks to the outlook.
LONDON | June 19, 2015 | UBS | There are some striking similarities currently between the US and UK labour markets. The unemployment rates are broadly the same, employment growth is similar, and the level of vacancies suggests continued jobs growth in both countries. Moreover, there are solid signs that pay growth has picked up in both the UK and US.
WASHINGTON D.C. | March 18, 2015 | By Pablo Pardo | On December 19, 2008, George W. Bush announced that the US would allocate $13.4 billion to rescue General Motors. Between April 22 and June 1, 2009, Barack Obama provided the company with $36.1. In the end, the state ended up with a 61% of the stake of what is still the second largest car manufacturer in the world.
MADRID | March 15, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | The markets have discounted an unchallenged drift upwards of the US currency, after the ECB embarked on its ambitious asset-buying scheme. Yet few anticipated the move might come so soon and reach such a rapid pace. As the Euro turns its retreat into a disorderly rout, emerging economies like Brazil are falling under unbearable pressure. The dollar’s swift upsurge has pounded global markets.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | On December 2 2014, Stanley Fisher gave an interview (video) to Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ. It was notable because Fischer had mostly been quiet, except for a couple of Lectures (not speeches) – here, here – given in international forums. Six or seven weeks later, is that interview still pertinent? At that point oil prices stood at close to USD 70 and now they stand below 50. Mostly as a reflection of low global AD (here).The global scenario is changing quickly, and not for the better. So maybe Fischer is not so sure anymore. [Image:WSJ]
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | If things get worse [for the US economy], that’s the fault of weak growth in Europe and the BRICS, having nothing to do with bad monetary policy by the Fed itself. Keep wearing those rose-tinted glasses and soon everyone will start feeling things couldn’t be better!