USA

FED keeps the door open in July

LONDON | Barclays | The US dollar strengthened after the FOMC left the door open for a September move, although it did not provide any strong signal for the timing of the first hike.


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Fed, beware of the inflation!

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | In The Risks to the Inflation Outlook SF Fed researcher Vasco Cúrdia writes: the median inflation forecast is not expected to return to the FOMC target of 2% until after the end of 2016. The uptick in inflation in the first half of 2014 could lead one to believe inflation is finally on the path back toward its target. However, inflation has shown similar patterns several times before and each time the uptick has never lasted very long. According to this model, we should not see inflation begin to recover more firmly until around the end of 2015.


US & UK: Siamese twins? Up to a point

SAO PAULO  | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | NGDP and RGDP trends are rather similar in both countries. The main question is: Why is the UK´s labor market so much more exuberant?


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Bankinter expects 3Q vertigo in sound cycle

MADRID | Bankinter Analysis | 3Q Perspectives. Economic cycle speeds up and, mostly, gains soundness and reliability. Global growth will consolidate in 2014/2015 by +3%/+4% with positive news for developed countries and less favorable surprises in emerging markets. Japan and India are the exception to this rule. Spain will also amaze and main economic risk will lie in regional regional integrity issues whose aftermath may be undervalued, regardless the final scenario.


China and USA: When the Giants Unwind

BEIJING | By Andy Xie via Caixin | The world has depended on Chinese and American stimulus for years, and one implication of their tightening is a slowing global economy in 2014



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This Time is Not So Different: The Euro Crisis and the 1840s

BERKELEY | By Carola Binder | The author compares the fiscal crisis in the 1840 in the US with what happened in the euro zone. Back in the XIX century state governments in America saw infrastructure projects fail and land values and tax revenue fell further, eroding their fiscal positions, making it harder for them to issue bonds and forcing them to pay higher interest rates. Something similar to what Greece is suffering.




Manufacturing punches US economy in the face

In what felt like an unexpected slap, US factory production shrank in November, the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index falling to 49.5 (50 marks the dividing line between expansion and contraction) from 51.7 in October instead of the expected 51.4. It’s the biggest contraction since July 2009, a clear sign of fiscal cliff angst.