Santander Corporate & Investment | The publication of results is nearing its end, and European company profits have shown resilience in face of a global environment dominated by uncertainty: the trade war, volatility in emerging markets and weakness in their currencies, Brexit, the growth of populism etc. Spanish companies are very exposed to international markets, given that only a third of their benefits come from the domestic market.
After a period of gloomy macro data, market watchers are starting to see the light. According to Allianz research, the share of “bulls” has increasedfrom around 30% at the start of the year to currently 54% net. At the same time, the volatility index is some 20% below its historical average, in spite of the much greater uncertainty facing the world economy.
By Fernando Barciela | Board member at Ferrovial, amongst other Spanish listed companies, Juan Arena was President of Bankinter from 2002 to 2007. “The crisis comes when assets prices drop. Then we have to choose between debt haircuts or raising asset prices via inflation and money printing,” he says.
By Michael Hasenstab and Sonal Desai via Caixin | China’s devaluation of the yuan has prompted worries, but these are overblown regarding both China and other markets.
Are we putting the responsilibity of exiting the crisis on central banks’ shoulders? Is ECB’s president Mario Draghi doing traders a favour by playing down the ECB’s responsibility for contributing to volatility? Professor of Financial Mathematics at Bocconi’s University Marcello Minenna answers to these questions from Milan and argues that a low interest rate environment is here to stay.
The Corner | July 14, 2015 | Stocks and bonds’ behaviour will still depend on how the Greek crisis unfolds but macro and corporate results should start to gain some traction.
MADRID | June 21, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | Bertrand Russell coined this famous phrase when the cold war nuclear escalation threatened the survival of the human race. A useful tip for intractable confrontations where sanguine sentiments lead conflicting sides to prefer collective ruin rather than reaching a compromise. The Greek imbroglio is a good example.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | ETF flows continue to reward positive economic data from the US with spectacular equity inflows for the second consecutive month. Europe was once again a laggard in both economic terms and in flows: Germany, Spain, Italy, and France, saw net outflows in December due to a combination of growth, Grexit and deflation concerns.
MADRID | The Corner | “We have been living in an unusually low volatilities -both implied and realized- environment,” JP Morgan’s Fernando Cavia argues. But the last two weeks analysts are seeing a change of trend: protection is gaining fans among European institutional investors who see some threat to equities’ potential.
MIAMI | By Pablo Pardo | The director of the IMF’s Department of Financial and Monetary Affairs, José Viñals, has declared himself “worried” about “the optimism of the financial markets.” Viñals made his remarks at the LSE Global Pensions Program, organized by the London School of Economics, Santander Asset Management and Novaster. To an audience of around one hundred pension fund managers and regulators, most of them from Latin America, the IMF official remarked that “everybody investing” in what he called “heterogeneous assets” has “made money” this year, in spite of the fact that the “economic news, ‘surprises’ have been relatively bad.”