Morgan Stanley: This has been another quarter in which banks have once again posted excellent results. 80% of banks beat in terms of PBT, up +35% year-on-year and +4% quarter-on-quarter, with capital beat also 830bps better, and no signs of deterioration in asset quality (provisions were -26% below our expectations and cost of risk remains conservative at around 55bps in 2023. The management teams highlighted that in deposits the mix will be changing and deposit beta will be increasing in line with our analysts’ estimates to 30% by year-end. The peak in NIMs is expected to be reached in 2H’23. Our analysts’ favourites are Caixabank, Intesa, ING and Commerzbank and reiterate Underweight on Credit Agricole.
