Bankinter | S&P has confirmed the country’s rating at BBB+ and upgraded its outlook to positive from stable.
Bankinter analysis team’s view: Positive news, although expected. Last November, Moody’s decided to raise the country’s rating to Baa2 from Baa3, with a stable outlook. S&P highlights that the country has achieved a current account surplus despite tariff uncertainty and has managed to improve its credit profile.
Italy ended 2024 with a fiscal deficit of -3.4% and the IMF predicts that it will close 2025 at -3.3%, although the European Commission expects it to be -3.0%. S&P notes that its fiscal deficit will fall below -3.0% in 2026. In addition, it believes that debt-to-GDP (currently around 136%) will begin to decline from 2028 onwards. Improved growth will be key to the country’s GDP over the next three years.
