Jefferies | BBVA reported 4Q25 attributable profit of €2,533m, which was a slight miss versus company consensus of €2,554m. PBT was a slight miss as well, with PPP a 2% beat. Group top line was a 2% beat, but partly offset by costs 3% higher than consensus. Impairments were a 9% miss. By geography, beats in Spain and Mexico, offset by Turkey missing. Final dividend of 60c per share announced.
- NII was a 3% beat, up 6% quarter-on-quarter and up 10% year-on-year.
- Net fee income was a 4% miss, with trading income a 19% and other income a €23m beat.
- Total costs were a 3% miss.
- Total impairments were a 9% miss versus consensus.
- Customer loans were 2% above consensus, up 6% quarter-on-quarter and up 12% year-on-year.
- Capital: CET1 ratio of 12.7% was 20bps lighter than consensus, with CET1 1% lighter and RWAs 1% heavier.
- FY25 RoTE at 19.3%
By key Geo:
- Spain: 9% net profit beat, driven by a lower tax rate and better trading income. PBT was a 2% beat, with PPP a 3% beat as well, on revs 2% above consensus and costs slightly heavier. Within income, NII and fees were in line, but trading income was a 48m EUR beat,
- Mexico: 4% net profit beat, driven by better revenues, but partly offset by a higher tax. PBT was a 6% beat, with PPP also a 6% beat on revs 4% ahead and costs broadly in line. Within revs, beats in NII, Trading income, other income and fees.
- Turkey: 40% miss (down by €103m) on higher impairments and costs. Revenues were broadly in line.
- Other Latam: 24% miss mainly on a higher tax rate than consensus.
- Rest of business came in line with consensus, with a 6% income beat and better tax offset by a costs miss.
2026 Guidance:
- Group: ROTE around 20%, better than 2025, Efficiency ratio below 40%.
- Spain: Loans: MSD growth, NII: LSD-MSD growth, Fees: LSD-MSD growth. Expenses: MSD-HSD growth. Efficiency below 35%. CoR: low 30’s bps.
- Mexico (in constant €): Loans: HSD growth, NII: MSD-HSD growth. Gross Income: HSD growth. Expenses: HSD growth. Efficiency at low 30’s, in line with 2025. CoR: around 340 bps.
- Turkey: Net Profit: around 1 bn€ (assumptions: 25% inflation eop, Reference Rate at 32% December 2026, c.-19% TRY/EUR fixing), CoR: around 200 bps, with a higher 1H26.
- South America (guidance in current €, loans in constant €): Loans: mid teens growth, Gross Income: high single digit growth, CoR: below 250 bps.
- Rest of Business (in constant €), Loans: double digit growth, Gross Income: high teens growth, Expenses: negative jaws, CoR: around 20 bps.
The 4Q print came broadly in line with cons., with LSD PPP beat more than offset by higher impairments. By market, beats in both core markets Mexico & Spain were offset by misses in Turkey & Argentina, on higher provisioning needs in retail, which we believe will raise some questions. New ’26 guidance of Group RoTE >20% (cons. at 20.7%), suggesting upgrades to core earnings, offset by downgrades coming from the periphery (Turkey profits guided down €150m).
