Intermoney | Ferrovial (Hold, Target Price €43/share) announced its results for December 25 on Wednesday after the close of trading in New York, and will hold a conference call and webcast today at 3 p.m.
The main figures from the results, together with our estimates, are shown in the attached table. Overall, EBITDA rose by 9% to €1.457 billion in 2025, well above our estimate (€1.387 billion), in what was a surprising Q4 for the Construction business, which doubled its EBITDA compared to Q4 2024, while the trend of moderating growth in Motorways was confirmed, in addition to the particularly unfavourable FX in Q4. FER reported figures below EBIT on this occasion, including a net result of €888 million (€822 million our estimate), helped by €295 million in capital gains from the sale of airports in the UK, already present in June.
We will have to revise our figures, at least for the Construction business, if we see that the exceptional improvement in Q4 continues in 26-27.
In fact, following 9M results below our estimates, and confirmation of the weakness of the dollar against the euro, in the run-up to these results we reduced our EBITDA forecasts for 26-28 by an average of 4%, especially in Construction, which nevertheless still implies a CAGR of over 10% between 25 and 28.
Ferrovial’s revenues grew by 5% in December (our estimate was 4%), showing a recovery in Construction growth. The Group’s revenues rose by 5% during 2025 as a whole to over €9.6 billion, slightly exceeding our estimate (4%). Construction, which contributes more than 80% of this variable, slowed its growth to 6% (3% was our estimate), implying 12% in Q4 alone, despite a more demanding base effect in 2024 following Budimex’s recovery in Q2, as well as the weakening of the dollar in the last quarter (down 8%.)
The portfolio at December, directly affected by FX, rose 9% compared to December 2024 to reach almost €17.5 billion.
