BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | As problem loan formation slows and credit costs ease, Spanish banks should perform better than Italians and Portuguese over the remainder of 2014 and through 2015 according to Moody’s.
MADRID | The Corner | Spain was the EU28 member state with the highest increase in the production in construction during the 2Q, with an increase by 7.0% YoY, according to first estimates from Eurostat. Moreover, Spain was the fourth country in the EU28 with the biggest increase in the production in June, with a growth of 6.8%. However, the construction experienced a decline of 2.9% in June in comparison to May, which represents the second biggest monthly decline of this variable among the EU28 member states. In June compared with May 2014, seasonally adjusted production in the construction sector fell by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28.
MADRID | By J. J. Figares (LINK) | On Wednesday, the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (BoE) were published. Although 9 of its members voted to retain unchanged its program of asset purchases in secondary markets, 2 of them, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weal, they voted against the proposal to keep interest rates reference at the current level of 0.5% and advocated to increase them by a quarter percentage point.
MADRID | The Corner | 2014 is not being a good year for LatAm. All countries in the region with the exception of Colombia have experienced much softer than anticipated growth. In Brazil, the political noise and uncertainty have impacted on the confidence and private activity in 1H201, with investments and private consumption leading the way down. UBS analysts see now Brazil’s real GDP growth at 0.6% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015.
MADRID | The Corner | One of the tactical indicators of Morgan Stanley, the “MTI” is giving a strong buy signal of European equities. In addition, outflows from Europe have been extreme. Thus, Morgan Stanley analysts expect the consensus to revise the benefits upwards from now on for the first time in 18 months.
MADRID | The Corner | After two months of decline, US construction rebounds in July at the fastest pace in eight months. As the Commerce Department reported yesterday, the number of housing starts rose 15.7% in July compared to June, reaching an annualized figure of 1.09 million units, the highest in eight months. Meanwhile, applications for building permits in the same month also advanced 8.1% to an annual rate of 1.05 million, after drops of 3.1 percent in June and 5.1 percent in May. Notably the permits to build single-family homes, a segment that accounts for three quarters of the U.S. housing market, increased in July by 0.9% to an annualized figure of 640,000, the highest since December 2013. In addition, permits for units in buildings with five units or more rose 23.6% in July to an annual rate of 382,000, representing its highest growth rate since January 2006.
MADRID | The Corner | Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS) of Malaysia has awarded to Técnicas Reunidas a contract for the engineering, procurement, construction, and commissioning (EPCC) of all hydrotreating units, interconnections and torch of the Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development Project (RAPID) in Pengerang.
MADRID | The Corner | The biggest uncertainty for China’s economy now and in 2015 is the nature and duration of the ongoing property downturn. Following a sharp drop in the beginning of 2014, Chinese property construction has shown signs of improvement in recent months as policies have been increasingly relaxed. Both have provided support for the economy and property related stocks, with the latter rallying by 17% from trough levels. However, UBS analysts expect that the property downturn will weigh more heavily on growth in Q4 and 2015.
BERLIN | Alberto Lozano | After the strong performance of the German stock market yesterday, one of the hardest hit in recent weeks by the greater exposure of its companies to the Russian market, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann expressed his confidence in the growth of the German economy and the euro area during the second half of the year after the paralysis of the second quarter. In fact, Bundesbank considers that the “accumulation of bad news” is responsible of the decline in the 2Q, what could change the spring forecasts, although the basic trend suggests a strengthening in the second half of the year. Moreover, the Bundesbank wanted to make clear that although “the sentiment has deteriorated from a high level, the fact that the trend for domestic demand continues basically high suggests the economy has not changed direction.”