MADRID | By The Corner | PMI manufacturing in the Eurozone was weaker than expected (51.8 versus 51.9), except for Spain, whose PMI picked up to 54.6 from previous 52.9. The negative note was the French data, which plummeted 1.4 points to 48.5 thus maintaining the country in the economic contraction zone.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The ECB President announced with fanfare last month a battery of measures to revive the credit in the EZ. The problem is that the open bar announced by Draghi won’t have an impact on loans until 2015 and, meanwhile, credit fall continues to accelerate in some peripheral countries, especially in Spain and Italy. There are those who believe that the latest data could force Mr Draghi to approve a direct debt purchase program before year’s end.
BEIJING | By Huo Kan and Wu Hongyuran via Caixin | Starting July 1 banks in China are using a new method of calculating the loan-to-deposit ratio, a change that the regulator and analysts say will allow for more loans to be extended. The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) announced on June 30 the new set of rules for figuring the ratio, which is capped by law at 75 percent, meaning that banks cannot lend out more than three-quarters of the deposits they accept.
MADRID | The Corner | BNP Paribas shares rose more than 4% on Tuesday after the French lender said it could pay the landmark $8.9bn settlement with US authorities for transferring billions of dollars on behalf of Sudan and other Washington-blacklisted countries. More actors in the EU banking sector might need to pay billionaire fines.
MADRID | The Corner | While the European inflation remained at 0.5%, credit steeply contracted in May thus neutralising the tepid improvement of the lending activity during March and April, according to Afi. The decline in private credit accelerated in small peripheral countries, but it continued the same in Spain and Italy.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Euro area “flash” June HICP remained unchanged at 0.5% y/y, in line with our and consensus expectations. Printing 0.51% y/y at two decimal places (very close to our 0.50% y/y estimate), today’s outturn is technically only very slightly higher than last month (0.49% y/y) and March (0.47% y/y). It remains nonetheless very weak indeed.
MADRID | The Corner | Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is concerned about a troubling disconnection between “markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally.” The international body representing central banks believes the risk of central banks normalizing monetary policy too late and too gradually shouldn’t be underestimated, pointing out that extremely accommodative monetary policy has a diminished effect over time. Meanwhile, the IMF has been asking to break the lethargy of the European economy with measures against low inflation for months with more stimulus.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Consumer confidence increased again in June, reaching positive territory for the first time since March 2005. The GfK consumer confidence index rose to 1 from 0 in May, in line with our expectations (consensus: 2). Improvements were generally broad-based, with ‘general economic situation over the last 12 months’ improving the most, up 2 points to -3.
SAN FRANCISCO | By Atul Singh via Fair Observer | With 61% of its population under 24, Africa’s greatest challenge is finding jobs for its youth. The continent needs to provide employment to 200 million people aged between 15-24. As per the World Bank, youth account for 60% of Africa’s unemployed. The African Economic Outlook records extensively how the young fare in labor markets. Lack of demand for labor, absence of meritocracy, and lack of proper training are the top three barriers to getting a job.
This article was originally published on Fair Observer.
MADRID | Bankinter Analysis | 3Q Perspectives. Economic cycle speeds up and, mostly, gains soundness and reliability. Global growth will consolidate in 2014/2015 by +3%/+4% with positive news for developed countries and less favorable surprises in emerging markets. Japan and India are the exception to this rule. Spain will also amaze and main economic risk will lie in regional regional integrity issues whose aftermath may be undervalued, regardless the final scenario.