Spain is not among the countries most directly exposed to Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught, but even so, 80% of its exports to the United States will be compromised by the trade war that the White House has declared on the rest of the world. To this must be added the indirect impact from the damage suffered by other partners and the changes that occur in global value chains. Spain is…
Deutsche Bank | Gestamp (GEST) will present its Q1-25 results on 8 May after the close of trading and will hold a conference call that same afternoon. As for its counterparts, the year has started with a difficult quarter considering European and North American production volumes. With the presentation of the results, we expect the outlook to be updated taking into account the impact of tariffs, but it should be…
Bankinter | February’s Trade Balance and Industrial Production, not yet affected by the new tariff environment. (i) Industrial Production -down 4.0% in February against the 3.6% drop estimated and 1.6% previous. (ii) Trade balance €17.7 billion against €18.5 billion estimated and €16.2 billion previous (revised from €16 billion). Exports up 1.8% month-on-month versus 1.5% estimated and 0.0% previous (revised from 2.5% down). Imports up 0.7% month-on-month against the 0.4% drop…
Banca March | In less than 100 days, Trump has imposed the highest tariffs of the last 100 years, increasing the average rate from 2.5% to 24%. Last Wednesday night, he announced a base global tariff of 10%, which came into effect on Saturday. For those countries with a trade deficit, a higher rate applies, which will begin next April 9th. This is the case for the EU, which from…
Alphavalue/DIVACONS | The Spanish alternative energy company, together with Cobra (Vinci, Buy, Target Price €162/share) and Endeavour Energy, reached financial close on Friday for the development of Australia’s first green energy network, located in New South Wales. The project, key to the country’s energy transition, involves a private investment of up to AU$20 billion (€12.4 billion) until 2030 and consolidates Acciona as a global benchmark in sustainable infrastructure. Acciona: Reduce,…
Morgan Stanley | Rob Pulleyn reviews his sector coverage as a preview of results, with expectations of continued outperformance over Europe (up 14% YTD and 21% from lows). However, the market maintains an underweight position on the sector and the valuation is still at a discount of -10% in PE versus a long-term premium of 1-2%. Rob maintains his preference for large cap integrated and regulated companies, offering the greatest…
CdM | Eurozone retail sales grew less than expected in February. Compared to last month, seasonally adjusted retail trade volume increased by 0.3% (against the expected 0.5%) in the eurozone and by 0.2% in the European Union (EU), according to initial estimates from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office. In January 2025, the volume of retail trade remained stable in the eurozone and grew by 0.1% in the EU. In year-on-year…
BancaMarch | China has already responded forcefully, with a 34% tariff on all imports from the US, to be applied from 10 April. In addition, it has introduced restrictions on the export of certain rare earths to the US. Other countries have not yet stated their response. Within the European Union (EU), member states such as France and Germany are taking a belligerent stance, while Italy is considering working towards…
BancaMarch | United Kingdom proposes to the European Union the creation of a supranational institution including a joint fund to finance defence projects. The document is an informal proposal drafted by the British Treasury. Next week, EU finance ministers and their counterparts from the UK and Norway will meet to discuss the financing of defence spending. In the British proposal, the purchased equipment would be recorded on the balance sheet…
Renta 4 | The relevant authorities have agreed to give the green light to the expansion of capacity at the British airport Luton, in which Aena has a 51% stake and which in 2024 accounted for just over 5% of the group’s EBITDA with 16.7 million passengers. Current capacity is set at 18 million passengers, but it has already been agreed to expand it to 19 million. This new expansion…