The ECB changed their forward guidance in yesterday’s meeting, signaling the hold in rates “at least to the end of 2019” along with a new round of TLTROs, in order to keep the credit flowing. Dave Lafferty, chief strategist at Natixis IM, reports: “If you were waiting for evidence that European monetary policy has turned the corner, you’ll definitely be disappointed… if not surprised.”
Despite the general deleveraging in the US, the corporate and non-corporate sector has begun to indebt itself again, currently to a level of 72.6% of GDP ($15 trillion). According to calculations of economists at the firm Solunion, the real level of non-financial corporate debt could exceed by 30%, or $3.9 Tr.
As a result of conversations maintained with Shanghai RAAS, Grifols has reached an agreement to buy assets through a share issue. The Spanish company will buy 26.2% of economic and voting rights in the Chinese firm (valued at €3.8 Bn). So, Shanghai RAAS’ capital will become: 26.7% Create Group, 26.2% Grifols and 25.8% RAAS China Limited.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has again downgraded global economic growth for 2019 to 3.3%. However, the most striking point was the strong downgrade of Eurozone GDP growth, which it now forecasts at only 1% when only a few months ago it was expecting 1.8%. Germany and Italy are the countries that emerge worse from this severe downgrade of growth.
The current €719 Bn batch of so-called TLTROs will mature between mid-2020 and early 2021. Were they to expire or become more expensive, the interest margins of banks – especially in Southern Europe (Italy and Spain) – would be negatively hit and the credit impulse would weaken. Hence, as said by Agnieszka Gehringer, senior analyst at Flossbach von Storch, given the weakening economic momentum, the ECB has little choice but to extend the TLTROs.
The only shareholder in Cepsa (Mubalada Investment Company) has announced its intention to rid itself of part of its holding. It will do so through direct sale to one or more investment funds. Among those who could be interested are Carlyle, Apollo, CVC and Macquare. According to leaks the holding would reach 30% and be valued at 3 billion euros.
Naturgy expects to invest 2 billion euros during 2019, of which 70% will be destined for Spain: almost 1 billion euros in new renewable installations, 175 million euros for electricity networks and another 220 million euros in gas networks. This was announced by the company’s president, Francisco Reynes, during a press conference prior to the General Assembly of shareholders held in Madrid yesterday.
The prospect of a settlement to the conventional elements of the trade war is helping sentiment. As discussed by Mark Tinker, Head of AXA Framlington Equities in Asia, it is in everybody’s interest to settle the tariff issue. However, the policies aimed (perhaps quixotically) at trying to limit Chinese growth, are very much still on the table. The issues over Huawei are perhaps the most visible aspect of this, but it does introduce a level of policy-dependent idiosyncratic risk for portfolios.
Manuel Moreno Capa | Making an attributable net profit of 3.542 billion euros is having a bad year? The answer is yes, although only of you are called Warren Buffet and these 3.542 billion euros earnt on 2018 represent a collapse of 91% over what you made in the previous year. Buffet cannot be very satisfied with these mediocre results of his investment flagship, Berkshire Hathaway.
This Thursday, 7 March, the Technical Advisory Committee of the Ibex 35 (CAT in tits Spanish acronym) will hold its routine meeting. On this occasion, it could include MasMovil in the index. The company’s trade volume is far higher than that of other members of the index. Among them, from less to greater volume, Tecnicas Reunidas, Indra, Viscofan or Meliá.