MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Spain is on the path to recovery, and that recovery is to be directly felt by citizens in the form of tax cuts fuelled by the country’s improving economic situation. That was the message delivered by Spanish Treasury Secretary, Miguel Ferre Navarrete, in a speech delivered at Spain Investors Day.
LONDON | Barclays analysts | The European Court of Justice has already published its opinion about the Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT): the ECB’s anti-crisis plan was “necessary” and “in principle” is in line with EU law. This much awaited opinion will have important implications for any broad-based ECB government bond purchases (QE), which we think are likely to be announced next week.
BRISTOL | Guest post by Tony Yates (Long and Variable) | That’s what George Osborne’s twitter feed would have you believe. And it was echoed by Andrew Sentance. Statements like these are at odds with modern monetary macro, and they are pretty irresponsible.
LONDON | Barclays analysts | We believe this week’s data on inflation and economic activity have provided more arguments to step up ECB’s asset purchase programmes by including EGBs on 22 January, which is our baseline scenario. Inflation entered negative territory in December and is likely to stay negative for a few months before a weaker euro improves the inflation and growth outlook.
MADRID | The Corner | ECB staff members have presented models for buying as much as €500 billion ($593 billion) of investment-grade assets, mostly sovereign bonds, according to sources close to the Governing Council. This will amount to an incomplete, partial solution according to some analysts. “It looks like a lot of money, although it won’t be enough” to expand the lender’s balance sheet by €1Tr as is planned, said Alberto Vigil of Barclays on Monday.
ATHENS | By Nick Malkoutzis | Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has a habit of defending his government by saying that his aim is to make Greece “a normal European country.” Whatever he may mean by this and however genuine he may be in wanting Greece to recover from its long crisis, this is an infuriatingly patronising comment. Intentionally or not, it aligns Greece’s prime minister with all the cranks in Europe and Greece’s misinformed critics beyond who view the country as some kind of basket case.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | We expect reforms to accelerate in 2015. As the government moves toward systematic “rule by law” and the property downturn persists, more space will open up and pressure increase for economic reforms to accelerate. We see three themes for China’s reforms this year: growth support, risk containment and rebalancing. In other words, reforms that can unlock new sources of growth and bolster domestic demand, reduce economic and financial risks, or diminish/remove structural imbalances should advance most.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | In addition to setting out our thoughts by sub-sector (capex, mobile devices, semis), we outline themes and stock specific catalysts for 2015, including a review of potential M&A and possible hikes in cash returns. We also highlight each stock’s investment drivers (positive and negative) through 2015. In general we see another robust year for semi capex, softer telecom capex (but stable vendor revenue), ongoing strong growth in low end smart-phones, a medium-term inventory correction in analog semis (with solid underlying trends), and the continuing emergence of mobile payments.
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | The euro hit a fresh nine-year low on Thursday after the publication of a letter from Mario Draghi which indicated that the central bank would likely purchase sovereign bonds in a bid to ward off a deflationary bout which is holding back growth on the continent. The euro was trading at $ 1.17540 against the greenback on Thursday. Friday saw a recovery to $ 1.18177. The single currency is currently hovering around levels seen back when the currency was launched in 2002, at €1.16.
MADRID | The Corner | Economic confidence in Spain reached its highest level in December since June 2007 (105.6 points from 104.2 the previous month), according to the European Commission. The figures show an improvement in trust from consumers, the services sector and retailers.