Banc Sabadell | The Council of Ministers gave the go-ahead to the extension of the Iberian exception (gas cap) until the end of the year, which would already have the approval of the EC. The formula has been modified, the main new feature of which is that the price increase curve will be “longer” and “smoother” than last year. If the curve of the gas cap was increasing, until now,…
Alphavalue/DIVACONS | The headquarters of five banks were the subject of judicial searches in and around Paris yesterday as part of an investigation into aggravated tax fraud, the National Financial Prosecutor’s Office (PNJ) said. According to the daily Le Monde, which broke the news, the banks under investigation are Société Générale (buy, P. O. 35.9 eur/acc), BNP Paribas (buy, P. O. 71.3 eur/acc), and its subsidiary Exane, Natixis and HSBC…
Renta 4 : European markets open higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.5%), with the markets on hold ahead of the inflation data due on Thursday and Friday in Europe and the US, which will determine the extent to which central banks will have to continue to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, the most advanced cycle indicators (German IFO, US Conference Board consumer confidence) show a better than expected performance in March, although the…
BancaMarch : In the Eurozone, money supply continues to slow down. In February, M3 growth (the broadest monetary aggregate) moderated more than expected to +2.9% year-on-year, down from +3.5% previously and below the +3% expected. It should be noted that this is the slowest pace of money supply growth since 2014. If we analyse the evolution of loans, the slowdown deepened in loans to households (+3.2% vs. +3.6% previously), with…
Bankinter | IFO Business Climate Survey (March) 93.3 vs 91.0 expected and 91.1 previous. Expectations 91.1 vs 88.3 expected and 88.5 previous. Current Situation 95.4 vs 94.1 expected and 93.9 previous. Analysis: The data bring a positive surprise. However, in the current context, the IFO is less influential. This week the focus is on the financial sector and inflation data in Europe. The downside is that solid economic data give…
CdM : The eurozone economy seems to be showing signs of coming back to life. In March, the services sector has been driving the revival and economic growth has accelerated to a ten-month high, according to the PMI index. Inflationary pressures have moderated, while employment growth accelerates and business confidence remains resilient. S&P Global’s seasonally adjusted flash composite PMI index of total euro area activity rose for the fifth consecutive…
Bankinter : The chairman of the ECB’s Supervisory Board, Andrea Enria, highlights the soundness of the sector and considers that the shareholder remuneration policy (average pay-out ~50.0% of NAB) is reasonable. Banking rose +4.79% on Tuesday. Positive highlights: UBS/Switzerland (CHF 19.42; +12.2%); Commerzbank/Germany (CHF 10.02; +7.4%), Sabadell/Spain (CHF 1.07; +7.5%), Unicredit/Italy (CHF 17.42; +6.9%), ING (CHF 11.16; +5.9%) and BBVA/Spain (CHF 6.57; +5.4%). Analyst’s view: Sector fundamentals are good (liquidity,…
Scope Rating | The unprecedented and last-minute deal, to be completed in the coming weeks, should help contain the financial cost of stabilising the hard-pressed Credit Suisse for the Swiss Confederation and also contain potential spillovers to the wider Swiss economy. The developments highlight the long-standing risks to the economy stemming from the banking system, given its large size relative to the Swiss economy and annual budget. Total assets of…
Dirk Becker (Allianz GI) | Credit Suisse has been seen as the weakest link in the global banking sector for several months, after various scandals and poor management decisions. We think the merger can therefore help to stabilise the global financial system: In our view, UBS are being paid for running down the risky parts of Credit Suisse, and they get to keep the highly profitable Swiss domestic unit in…
Link Securities | Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, as reflected in its Monthly Bulletin, expects Germany’s Gross Domestic Product to contract in 1Q2023 relative to the previous quarter. The Bundesbank believes that the productivity of the German economy could fall again in 1Q2023, albeit less sharply than in the previous quarter. According to the bulletin, the German economy recovered at the beginning of 2023 only with difficulty from the sharp…