Top Stories

European economy

UBS CreditSuisse

European economy 15th September 2020

Another Banking Merger On The Horizon: UBS Considers A Possible Merger With Credit Suisse

The presidents of UBS Group and Credit Suisse Group would be exploring a potential merger to create one of Europe’s largest banks. Both banks are undergoing changes at the top management level and are under pressure to reduce costs. Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic is sparking renewed interest in consolidation in Europe. The news comes in the wake of just over a week of the announcement about the potential consolidation of two Spanish entities operating in the same market – CaixaBank and Bankia.

Brexit through the eyes of two British companies with direct exposure: Getlink and LSE

European economy 15th September 2020

London Stock Exchange vs EU: Refinitiv Battle Reveals Unease Over Power Of Modern Stock Markets

Johannes Petry via The Conversation | Relations between London and Brussels have been better. While Brexit dominates the headlines, another cross-channel development has recently captured the attention of financial institutions. It concerns the the London Stock Exchange’s proposed US$27 billion (£21 billion) acquisition of US financial company Refinitiv, into which the European Commission is carrying out an in-depth anti-trust investigation.

BoE

European economy 14th September 2020

BoE Preview: No Change Expected

BoE will announce its next policy decision on Thursday (noon). We expect no change in policy parameters. Current policy: Bank rate at +0.1%. OngoingQE, total YTD envelope of +£300bn (+£232bn of which bought so far), with latest +100bn announced in June.At the last meeting in June, BoE also added a weak form of forward guidance (“The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.”) Expectation:…

Euro area growth: neither very fast nor particularly slow

European economy 11th September 2020

European Cross-Border Bank Mergers: Less Compelling After The Pandemic Than Before

EU agreement on a pandemic fund boosted market and regulators’ wishes to move towards cross-border consolidation among European banks- the ECB’s vice-president, Luis de Guindos, has already warned of the need for the sector to continue with the merger process. Scenarios have started to be built again about who should be merging with whom. But unity around the EU pandemic fund is not about banks, say analysts at Scope Ratings.

lagarde

European economy 10th September 2020

“The ECB Is Monitoring Current Developments”

The ECB has left its policy stance unchanged after today’s GC meeting. The tone of the press conference was a touch less dovish than expected and President Lagarde has not signaled any large swing in policy in the near term. The overall message was clear: the ECB is monitoring current developments (including the EUR) and assessing the efficiency of the current policy measures before acting with more accommodation

ecb luminale

European economy 9th September 2020

Can The ECB Strike Back?

We do not expect ECB policy action this week, but guidance is that the ECB has its finger on the trigger for more PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme). Communication will not be easy, but EUR appreciation, record low core inflation and Fed policy should make for very dovish tones. We expect €500bn more PEPP in December, but inflation expectations urgently need attention too. Front-end rates will likely be supported by FX concerns, but credit risks are increasingly underpriced in by the market. Beyond verbal intervention, we think the ECB has limited options to weaken EUR for now.

hybrid car

European economy 9th September 2020

For The First Time Since 2015, More Electric Vehicles Were Sold In Europe In July Than In China

Santander Corporate & Investment | Global sales of electric cars and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles increased 72% annually and 5% monthly to 253,000 units in July (the 4th best monthly figure in history). Europe recorded remarkable growth (199% in yearly terms and 22% monthly), due to incentives and requirements to cut average emissions in the EU. Meanwhile there was a slight recovery in China (+44% on a yoy basis, but -5% monthly). Germany, France and the UK made the largest contributions to sales growth.

Chris Lagarde

European economy 8th September 2020

ECB Jawboning The Euro

Last week in financial markets saw the euro rise above the $1.20 threshold. ECB chief economist Philip Lane intervened recalling market participants that the exchange rate “mattered”. The single currency traded down to $1.18 shortly after the comments. Currency appreciation amid near-zero inflation in the euro area is unwelcome for future price developments. Christine Lagarde’s message next Thursday after the governing council will likely echo Lane’s comments.

The ECB's decision on interest rates hits the European banking sector

European economy 7th September 2020

After Jackson Hole, Comes The Week Of The ECB

On Thursday September 10, the ECB will meet and present its updated macroeconomic table, which will give us a better idea of its expectations regarding the pace of economic recovery (the August PMIs showed signs of weakness after the strong rebound from the April lows). The central bank will also update its view on current and future inflation levels with data once again showing very contained prices and in a context where the Fed is willing to tolerate inflation above 2% to obtain this figure as an average.

european banks2

European economy 4th September 2020

The ECB Points The Way Towards Banking Mergers: Profitability To Fall Below 2% This Year vs 12% Demanded By Investors

The European banking sector continues to lose importance as reflected by the fact that both Societe Generale and BBVA will no longer form part of the Euro Stoxx50. Whatsmore, the ECB’s vice-president, Luis de Guindos, has warned of the need for the sector to continue with the merger process. According to de Guindos, this crisis has aggravated problems that already existed before Covid-19. These include high structural costs (commercial networks and staff), high leverage and low profitability.