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Brexit through the eyes of two British companies with direct exposure: Getlink and LSE

In Europe 18th January 2019

Brexit Through The Eyes Of Two British Firms With Direct Exposure: Getlink And LSE

Now the UK parliament has the last word on Brexit agreement. The calendar is the problem and, obviously the problems associated with the decision taken, but a hard Brexit may be less of a risk. The experts from Alphavalue have taken the share prices of Getlink, the public company that manages and operates the Eurotunnel, and the London Stock Exchange Group, as examples of companies whose performance has discounted a soft Brexit scenario for some time.

Financing costs for European banks will increase after TLTROs

In Europe 18th January 2019

Financing Costs For European Banks Will Increase After TLTROs’ Adjustment

The TLTROs, or ECB credit lines to European banks, have for years regulated bank liquidity.We are talking about some 725 billion euros in financing, of which 170 billion corresponds to Spanish banks. They are little by little being reduced. It is still not known if they will be withdrawn completely. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, replacing this quantity of TLTROs would not be a panacea for the banks.

TERESA MAY ON BREXIT

In Europe 17th January 2019

Brexit As Symptom Of The Problems, Not The Starting Point

Tahir Abbas  | The underlying structural and cultural problems of the UK are not going to change by leaving the European Union. The austerity program that was initiated in light of the events of the 2008 global financial crisis hit Britain far more severely than other countries within the EU. As has been reported by the UN special rapporteur, this austerity policy was ideological in nature and not based on sound economic thinking.

Too many questions on Brexit – no trivial solution for an unknown territory

In Europe 16th January 2019

Too Many Questions On Brexit – No Trivial Solution For An Unknown Territory

Theresa May’s defeat in the British Parliament is historic with a gap of 230 votes (432 votes against 202 against). What can happen? Philippe Waechter from Ostrum AM have in mind a scheme with all the alternatives. Can Theresa May still be credible after her terrible defeat? We can imagine general elections but who will take the 10 Downing Street?

Monte Dei Paschi reacts to the ECB notification with its largest fall since May

In Europe 15th January 2019

Monte Dei Paschi Reacts To The ECB Notification With Its Largest Fall Since May

The flood of negative news about Italian banks continues. The shares of Banco Dei Paschi di Sienna (BMPS) fell -10.2% to 1.35€/share after receiving a request from the ECB to improve its solvency ratios. The central bank sees risks which affect the bank’s profitability and financing, but the Italian Economics Minister, Giovanni Tria, comments that “Italian banks do not have major problems”.

The EU will not grant London unlimited access to European financial markets

In Europe 15th January 2019

The Moment Of Truth For Brexit Withdrawal Deal- And For Theresa May

Finally, Britain’s House of Commons will vote on the divorce deal with the European Union, today at 19:00 local time. PM Theresa May postponed the vote, originally set for 11 December, due to its lack of support in parliament. Analysts at Julius Baer believe a failed deal will not inevitably lead to the hard no-deal Brexit that many fear. Furthermore, an alliance seeking a softer Brexit, or to abort Brexit, optionally using a second referendum, may take control of the process.

Euro area growth: neither very fast nor particularly slow

In Europe 14th January 2019

Euro Area Growth: Neither Very Fast Nor Particularly Slow

Following a truly exceptional 2017, the growth of the euro area dropped down a gear in the first half of 2018. Although this raised some suspicion, it was attributed to temporary factors (colds, strikes, meteorology, etc.). However, the pace of growth in Q3 was much lower, and this has already triggered some alarms. In this article, CaixaBank Research will study to what extent should we be worried.

The “R” club is recruiting

In Europe 12th January 2019

The “R” Club Is Recruiting

Germany is on track for a technical recession, like Italy. Growth should return in 2019, but slower EM means slower Germany.The main calls for 2019 suggested by the analysts of BoAML are the euro area inflation at 1.0% on average, tricky for the ECB but good for purchasing power. These following are their arguments:

The absent are in the wrong

In Europe 9th January 2019

The Absent Are In The Wrong

The French say: “The absent are always in the wrong.” The saying is quite correct, at least as far as the unification process in Europe is concerned. Greece has been a member of the European Union for almost four decades but, sadly, the parochialism of the Greek political elite (bar a few exceptions) has been a main feature of the country’s participation in the project.

The ECB intervened in the Italian Banca Carige, as expected

In Europe 3rd January 2019

As Expected, The ECB Intervened In The Italian Banca Carige

The European Central Bank yesterday named three temporary administrators, as well a three member vigilance commission, to take control of Italy´s 10th bank and replace its leadership, following the resignation of the majority of its board members. Even tough Pietro Modiano, one of the three temporary administrators  declared that there was no merger on the horizon for the bank, they will likely try to find another bank in which they can integrate it.