Catalonian independence: When rating agencies went further than voters
MADRID | By Álex García
In Europe
Eurozone crisis is taking its toll on Spain
MADRID | By Francisco López | Spain is not an oasis inside the Eurozone. The 18 main private research services believe that the slowdown in the European economy is already taking its toll on Spain. Besides, they forecast that Spanish GDP will grow slower than expected in the last quarter of 2014 (0.4%) versus 0.5% of the third quarter or 0.6% of the second quarter.
The politics of debt dynamics in Greece
ATHENS | By Jens Bastian via MacroPolis | The reprofiling of Greece’s sovereign obligations makes any future debt restructuring an exercise that would almost entirely impact the official sector of Greece’s international creditors. Among these creditors, European institutions such as the ECB, the EFSF and eurozone member states would be affected most prominently.
Finland: in the middle of a “lost decade”
Located in the Fennoscandian region of northern Europe, Finland shines as one of the most successful democracies in the world, coming first in the 2014 World Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders. The Nordic country has very good economic indicators and was classified by The Heritage Foundation as the world’s 16th country in terms of economic freedom.
Things to watch before lunch: UK inflation report, EZ production data
MADRID | The Corner | Euro area industrial production, the BoE Inflation Report and UK labour market data will be watched closely today. Barclays analysts expect euro area production to rise 0.7% m/m in September, partially offsetting August’s sharp drop. The Inflation Report is likely to shed light on recent BoE policy decisions, including possible downward revisions of its inflation and unemployment forecasts. UK consumer inflation fell to 1.2 per cent in September, a hefty 0.5 percentage point lower than the BoE expected just three months ago.
Eurozone crisis: “Everybody´s talking” (except about money)
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | In “What caused the great recession in the Eurozone? What could have avoided it?” Philippe Martin and Thomas Philippon begin thus: There is a wide disagreement about the nature and cause of the Eurozone crisis. Some see it as driven by fiscal indiscipline, some emphasise excessive private leverage, while others focus on external imbalances, sudden stops, or competitiveness divergence due to fixed exchange rates, as the following quotes illustrate.
Catalan Independence drive defying reality
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | This weekend´s controversial “non-binding consultation” has caused quite the stir in international media over the past number of days. Reports asserted that 80 % of Catalans had voted in favour of Catalonia becoming an independent state. Yet that figure ignores almost 60% of the electorate who chose not to take part in Sunday´s vote. Those numbers point to a rather more nuanced narrative than the one currently being posited by the Catalan independence movement and many reporters.
QE fails to work in Europe
MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | The inability to implement a common economic stance aimed at delivering growth and jobs in Europe is putting the onus on monetary policy. The ECB stands as the only hope for redressing a dismal state of affairs. Yet, such high expectations could prove ill-founded. While Draghi saved the Euro’s plight back in mid-2012, he now seems utterly helpless to prevent deflationary bouts looming on the EZ horizon. His quantitative easing (QE) plan, far from achieving its goal, has lost steam. Many observers have put the blame on the ECB’s reluctance to enlarge the asset basket it is currently buying, demanding fully fledged QE, which involves junior debt and sovereigns. Yet, the flaw might lie in Europe’s failure to fully profit from monetary easing.
UK: let’s be more British, please
LONDON | By Víctor Jiménez | Raise the main interest rate? Certainly not. Or not yet, anyway. While the US economy is not showing clear signs of having overcome the assisted breathing phase (i.e. printing money or the recently wound up phase of quantitative easing that the Fed finished two weeks ago), the chances are that the Bank of England will keep the price of the pound at a very low level.
German reunification, a model for Europe
BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | Millions of Germans are celebrating in Berlin the 25th anniversary of the Wall’s fall this weekend. A crucial period during which Germany transformed itself from a divided, uncompetitive country considered “the sick man of Europe” to Europe’s economic locomotive.