Spain is not among the countries most directly exposed to Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught, but even so, 80% of its exports to the United States will be compromised by the trade war that the White House has declared on the rest of the world. To this must be added the indirect impact from the damage suffered by other partners and the changes that occur in global value chains. Spain is…
Deutsche Bank | Gestamp (GEST) will present its Q1-25 results on 8 May after the close of trading and will hold a conference call that same afternoon. As for its counterparts, the year has started with a difficult quarter considering European and North American production volumes. With the presentation of the results, we expect the outlook to be updated taking into account the impact of tariffs, but it should be…
Morgan Stanley | Rob Pulleyn reviews his sector coverage as a preview of results, with expectations of continued outperformance over Europe (up 14% YTD and 21% from lows). However, the market maintains an underweight position on the sector and the valuation is still at a discount of -10% in PE versus a long-term premium of 1-2%. Rob maintains his preference for large cap integrated and regulated companies, offering the greatest…
The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, begins an official trip to Vietnam and China this week with a strong commercial focus, aiming to increase sales of Spanish companies in these countries amidst the tariff war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. The goal of the trip is to balance trade relations with both countries—currently, they sell much more to Spain than they buy—and it takes on special ignificance in…
CdM | The chair, Ana Botín, will say today at the shareholders’ meeting that during the first quarter the bank has continued to increase the number of customers and expects to achieve a RoTE of approximately 15.7% (post-AT1), on track to reach the annual target of approximately 16.5%. The CET1 is expected to reach 12.9%, with a tangible book value plus cash dividend per share increasing above 14%. Among the…
Spain ranks, along with Greece and Italy, among the European countries with the highest weight of the underground economy. In Spain, black money represents 24% of Gross Domestic Product, just behind Greece – at 36% – and Italy, at 31%, respectively. These are the figures recently published in a report for the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), prepared by authors Francesco Pappadà, a professor at the University of Venice,…
Goods sold by the 27 EU member states to the U.S. will be subject to a 20% tariff, as announced by Donald Trump. For Spanish exports—just over €18 billion last year—it will have an impact of at least €3.2 billion, or 0.2% of GDP, and will particularly hit capital goods, metallurgy, and agricultural sectors—such as olive oil, fruits and vegetables, or wine—which account for more than €14 billion in exports….
Luis Alcaide | The synthetic indicator of export activity prepared by the Ministry of Economy and Trade for the fourth quarter of 2024 shows a slight increase in the order book of around 0.6% for the first three months of 2025. Likewise, the twelve-month outlook maintains an even more modest but positive percentage. Flickering lights on the future of exports in the current year. The order book indicator has accurately…
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) has criticized the methods used by Social Security to balance its calculations and has warned about the lack of sustainability of pensions, which ‘has not improved after the reforms,’ pointed out Airef President Cristina Herrero, who noted that ‘the dynamics of pensions are now worse than before’ the reforms promoted by former Social Security Minister José Luis Escrivá, which included revaluation with inflation…
US President Donald Trump’s trade siege of Venezuela, revoking permits to do business with the Venezuelan state holding company PDVSA, has ensnared US-based Global Oil Terminals, India’s Reliance Industries, Italy’s ENI, France’s Maurel & Prom… and Repsol, which has more than €500 million in equity risk in that country. This is evident from Repsol’s 2024 annual report. After systematically reducing its equity exposure in Venezuela for several years, in 2024,…