Intermoney | Ferrovial (Hold, PO 39) announced its results for March 25 yesterday after the close of the New York market, holding a conference call today at 3 p.m.
The main figures from the results, together with our estimates, are shown in the attached table. Overall, EBITDA rose by 22% to €309 million in Q1 2025, compared to Intermoney’s estimate of 24%, confirming the improvements in margins in construction, combined with a certain stability in growth in Motorways, another trend already observed in previous quarters. Ferrovial did not report figures below EBIT on this occasion, although based on the figures published, we estimate that the net result would have been around €116 million as of March.
After 2024 annual results that were somewhat below our estimates, we reduced our estimated EBITDA 25-27 figures by an average of 3% in our previous report, but still implying a CAGR rise of 12%. We have not yet taken into account the very recent weakness of the dollar against the euro, so our estimates would be somewhat biased to the downside.
Ferrovial’s revenues grew by 10% in March (6% Intermoney estimate) due to construction; margins remain high at Budimex, confirming their recovery in Construction. The Group’s revenues rose by 10% in Q1 25 to over €2.05 billion, above the Intermoney estimate (6%). Construction, which accounts for more than 80% of this variable, clearly accelerated its growth to 7% (Intermoney estimate 2%), benefiting from the 15% decline at Budimex in Q1 24 (down 15%), which Ferrovial explained at the time by the completion of several projects, not offset by the start of others. On the other hand, Ferrovial Construction increased its revenues by 2%, compared to our forecast of 3% for the whole of 25. The portfolio at March rose by 3% compared to March 24 to reach almost €17.2 billion.
Construction EBITDA rose in Q1 to €87 million, compared to Intermoney’s estimate of €92 million, with favourable developments by unit:
1) Ferrovial Construction confirmed its positive EBITDA margins at the start of the year at 3.6%, compared to 1.7% in March 24. This unit shows a notable recovery from the 1.6% drop in 2023. EBITDA at March was €28 million, compared to €13 million in 2024, the best figure since 2016; while 2) Budimex accelerated its margins in 24, reaching 9.8% in December; in the last quarter, there was a 70 bp decline to 8.8%, generating a 2% decrease in EBITDA to €35 million. Webber kept its margins stable at 5.8%, achieving its best EBITDA figure in the last quarter, €24 million (up 26%). EBIT in Construction also performed well, after meeting its targets in 2024. The division’s EBIT margins continued to grow in the last quarter by 120 bp to 3.3% in 2024, reaching 3.9%.
Ferrovial’s consolidated EBITDA in Q1 25 22% versus Intermoney’s estimate of 24%. Motorways increased their EBITDA by 16% versus Intermoney’s estimate of 16%, due to traffic maturation in the US. Ferrovial increased its consolidated EBITDA to March by 22% to €309 million (Intermoney estimate €316 million). In addition to its contribution to the increase in Group revenue, the greatest impact of Motorways is always seen at the EBITDA level (up 16% to €235 million), in line with our estimate of €235 million. The figures show stable growth in the US, in line with expectations, which can be explained by the maturation process of the projects, although some ramp-up processes are still ongoing. However, growth in 24 was affected by the departure of Azores from the scope. Among specific projects, we highlight:
1) The I-66, consolidated since 2S 23, contributed €47 million compared to Intermoney’s estimate of €48 million, and is in the ramp-up phase.
2) Another relevant point was 35W, where the entry into service of section 3C in June 23 had a lower than expected effect on EBITDA (€61 million versus Intermoney’s estimate of €72 million). The rest of the assets in the US were, in general, in line with or slightly above IMV.
