Banc Sabadell | Greening’s (GGR) new strategy aims for a structural transformation of the group towards the industrial segment, with a focus on Spain and, to a lesser extent, Italy. Activities will be streamlined towards self-consumption, generation – via SVP – and supply.
The plan includes financial restructuring, asset rotation (with capital gains of €72 million) and a capital increase (up to €30 million; €15 million already committed). There would also be scope for further M&A. It is expected to achieve greater predictability in cash generation (>2030) with a greater contribution from SPVs (80% of EBITDA), where GGR will reach €35.7 million in EBITDA’30 (340 MW against 90 MW COD&UC currently) compared to €21.4 million in 2026. Leverage will be reduced to 2.5x DFN/EBITDA’30e against 6.4x 2026.
Assessment: We would, in principle, view GGR’s plan positively, as it focuses on countries and activities that generate value and aims to achieve a more predictable income statement (thanks to the SPV model) and a healthy balance sheet (with significant deleveraging).
However, we see the difficulty in its execution, particularly in the short term, as it is highly dependent on the financial restructuring process and asset turnover (€27m by 2027), as well as the capital increase. It will also be important to see how the integration of EiDF (and the anticipated synergies) is carried out. Although the plan does not initially envisage M&A, GGR does not rule out this possibility as a growth lever, and we would view this as risky in the short term.
We maintain our Buy/Hold rating pending greater clarity on the announced short-term milestones, such as the financial restructuring, asset rotation in 2026 (c. €7m) or a capital increase (€30m representing 28% of its market capitalisation). It will also be important to see how the year 2025 closes, as a starting point for the plan and the new management team.
