MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | There is a consensus amongst Spanish economists, who are forecasting a growth in GDP of 1.3% in 2014 and 2% in 2015. The Government shares this view and, on this basis, has already outlined the draft of next year’s budget. It believes that the “recovery and increased employment” phase is already under way, and in fact, that Spain is showing better indexes than the Euro zone average.
(By Barclays) | The Spanish government presented the details of the 2015 draft fiscal budget on Wednesday and the updated macroeconomic outlook underpinning it. There are few changes on the fiscal targets and projections, although the government now expects the economy to grow this year by 1.3% and next by 2% (Barclays: 1.2% and 1.8%). The budget minister in the press conference saw very little risk of the sovereign meeting the deficit target of 5.5% of GDP this year.
MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | The debate about the independence of Catalonia is at the centre of Spain’s political concerns. The Catalan Government and the parties supporting it -covering a broad spectrum, from the centre to the extreme left- have taken every step to call the referendum (called query) that would open the door to independence. The Spanish authorities have taken steps to prevent a consultation-referendum which it says contravenes the text and spirit of the 1978 Spanish Constitution.
MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | The Spanish Budget 2015 aims at delivering growth and jobs. Yet, the draft disclosed on Tuesday shows the limited scope for enforcing such a goal. The foreseen improvement in the economic environment would increase available resources through enhanced taxable income, a shrinking in unemployment and the debt-servicing bill. The Government intends to use the extra margin of manoeuvre to lower personal income and corporate taxes while increasing public investment. Yet, the amounts at stake hardly represent any sizeable boost for GPD.
MADRID | The Corner | There is nothing better than politics to add volatility to the markets. After Catalan leader Artur Mas formally convoked a Nov. 9 referendum for Catalonia independence, the Spanish government is holding an emergency cabinet meeting Monday to launch a lawsuit aimed at blocking the vote. In the short term this clash could widen spreads in Spain and affect domestic banks with exposure to Catalonia, Morgan Stanley pointed out. The most probable scenario is a fiscal agreement, they believe.
MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | Spanish Justice Minister Alberto Ruiz Gallardón announced his resignation on Tuesday after the government scrapped his controversial abortion reform plan restricting it to only cases of rape or serious health risks. Although Mr Gallardón had 30-year-experience in politics, president Rajoy let him go –he didn’t want to take the risk of losing more votes in the next elections.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | It is likely that the Spanish government will revise its growth forecasts upwards for the country in 2014, but only by one tenth of a percentage point-to 1.3%. This is likely to be the submission that the Ministry of Economy together with the Ministry of Finance will give to the next Council of Ministers.
MADRID | The Corner | As expected, eurozone finance ministers have yet to agree on the guarantees requested by Mario Draghi for the riskier asset-backed securities (ABS), the so-called mezzanine level. Some countries such as Spain have already expressed their intention to guarantee them if some country of the zone euro did. Spanish economy minister pointed out that securitizations in Spain would not be at a comparative disadvantage. For the time being, not Germany nor France or the Netherlands will grant any collateral to the financial sector.
MADRID | The Corner | Monetary policy is practically exhausted, there is almost no room for fiscal manoeuver due to the excess of indebtment… the only possible move for Spain now is “reforming the reform,” as Barclays’ Alberto Vigil commented on Tuesday. The Paris-based think-tank, who as usual warned about the huge unemployment rate and the deflation risk on Monday, recommended increasing consumer, property, and green taxes, and reducing employer contributions to social security for less-skilled workers.
MADRID | The Corner | Unemployment continues to afflict Spaniards and official figures released on Tuesday added even more pressure on the authorities: 8,700 more jobless people were registered in August, the first rise in unemployment after six months of improvement.