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In the World 14th November 2023

Biden and Xi both have good reasons to end the summit with a -temporary- bang

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The importance of the much-expected meeting between President Biden and President Xi in San Francisco cannot be understated, no matter the likely shallowness of the outcomes.The fact that there have only been two face-to-face since Biden took over from President Trump says it all about the importance of this encounter as the pinnacle of a series of meetings to step up dialogue between the two…

World economy 13th November 2023

Moody’s maintains US debt rating, but downgrades outlook

Bankinter | Moody’s has maintained its US debt rating, but worsened the outlook. The credit rating agency maintains the rating at AAA, but changes the outlook to “negative” from “stable”. In its report Moody’s refers to the worsening fiscal situation and the polarisation of politics as long-term concerns for the US economy. Assessment: Rising interest rates, the sharp increase in public debt and a polarised Congress that is unable to…

World economy 11th November 2023

China’s inflation returns to negative territory: -0.2% year-on-year in October, down from 0% previously

Banca March: Yesterday in China, inflation returned to negative territory and continues to reinforce expectations of the need for further monetary stimulus. Specifically, October’s CPI was -0.2% year-on-year versus 0% previously and one tenth of a percentage point lower than expected. By components, it should be noted that the fall in inflation came from goods prices, which fell by -1.1% year-on-year in October and accumulated seven consecutive months of declines,…

World economy 8th November 2023

Russia and Saudi Arabia to maintain voluntary oil supply cuts until at least end of 2023

Banca March: Russia and Saudi Arabia have confirmed that they will maintain voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of 2023, reviewing in December whether to prolong, deepen or end the supply cap. This supply cap began in the spring of 2023, when Russia responded to sanctions imposed for its invasion of Ukraine. Other OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, opted to join voluntary cuts totalling 1.66 million barrels per day…

World economy 7th November 2023

South Korea’s economy to accelerate in 2024 thanks to better exports, higher capital flows and easing of financial conditions

Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) | External headwinds may seem to be only getting stronger, but the worst is likely over for the Korean economy. For most of 2023, the peninsula was reeling from the lagged impact of 300bps rate hike, double digits decline of exports, and uncertainty from US-China geopolitical rivalries that have negatively impacted its key sectors such as semiconductor production. In response, policy makers have made a series of…

In the World 6th November 2023

US companies experience biggest CEO drain in 20 years

F.R.| Through October of this year, some 1,425 CEOs have left their positions at US companies across all industries and statuses, 47% more than the same period last year and the highest number since 2002, according to the latest quarterly Challenger CEO Turnover Report from talent consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. In the third quarter alone, there were 518 CEO departures – mostly from government organisations, NGOs or healthcare companies…

In the World 6th November 2023

First signs of weakness in US labour market: unemployment up slightly to 3.9%

BancaMarch: First signs of weakness in the US labour market, known on Friday. On the one hand, the Non-Farm Employment Creation figure was below 200,000 jobs, and practically half of September’s figure (150,000 against 180,000 expected and against 297,000 of the previous month, revised downwards). In line with the lower job creation, we also saw unemployment rise by one tenth of a point to 3.9%, a rise that came in…

World economy 6th November 2023

China’s October Caixin PMIs point to a near stagnant economy

Renta 4: Opening higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.6%, S&P futures 0%), picking up Wall Street’s gains after the close of European markets and awaiting the US employment data. In the background, China’s October Caixin PMIs, like the official ones, show a slowdown and point to an almost stagnant economy: services 50.4 ( versus 51 estimated and 50.2 previously) and composite 50 (versus 50.9 previously). At the corporate level, Apple’s results yesterday…

In the World 3rd November 2023

Three out of four global listed companies already use ESG metrics for incentives

F.R.| 77.7% of listed companies in Europe and the US included ESG metrics in their 2022 annual reports on long-term incentive plans, 68% more than the previous year, according to the 2022 Global Report on ESG Metrics in Executive Incentive Plans prepared by Willis Towers Watson (WTW) based on an analysis of 1,073 such reports on both sides of the Atlantic. In the case of Europe, 90% of the sample…

World economy 2nd November 2023

Fed remains cautious and meets expectations, leaves rates at 5.25/5.50%

Bankinter| The US Federal Reserve (Fed) met expectations and left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%/5.50%. Assessment: The Fed’s statement did not introduce any new developments and the decision met expectations by repeating rates once again. However, the key to the meeting was Powell’s message. In line with the previous meeting, the tone remained cautious. The Fed Chairman once again said that the central bank “will proceed carefully”, avoiding…

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