BEIJING | By Liu Ligang via Caixin | Pessimistic voices are saying China’s property market is nearing a Japan-style collapse of the late 1980s, but this ignores the fact urbanization will continue to create demand for homes.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | It may sound strange, but that´s what comes to mind when central bankers start playing “alternative roles”. In the case of Sweden things started unraveling when the Riksbank decided to “prick” a housing “bubble”.
BEIJING | By Peter Lundgreen via Caixin | There are a host of reasons to doubt Europe’s growth prospects for this year and next, so investors would be wise to look for opportunities in Asia.
MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | Trying to compete with emerging markets is not enough: Those EU countries trying to re-launch their industrial sectors in order to boost economic recovery need to go through technological changes, Yao Yang explains to The Corner. Dean of the China National School of Development and Director of the China Center for Economic Research, he believes that austerity in Europe has not been in vain. On the same day, business-research group Conference Board reported that Chinese growth will dip to 5.5% in 2015-19, Prof. Yang points out that such a decline would not mean any catastrophe.
Jacob Straus | Homelessness continues to plague societies the world over, with legal frameworks needed to tackle it still largely lacking.
MADRID | The Corner | Markets expect more dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve’s chairwoman Janet Yellen, who is addressing a Boston Fed conference on income inequality today. The fact that she has put the issue into the mainstream has earned support from working class communities. Visiting an under-privileged neighborhood on Thursday, she eschewed the chance to talk about monetary policy, but instead listened to stories about layoffs and lost savings. Wall Street took some comfort from the St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, who said that the Federal Reserve should consider delaying the end of bond purchases, given declining inflation expectations.
BEIJING | By James A. Dorn via Caixin | In his new book Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China, Nicholas R. Lardy, one of the world’s leading China experts and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, makes a strong case that the market, not the state, has been the key factor in the country’s remarkable rise. In 1978, Beijing began to loosen its grip on economic life and paramount leader Deng Xiaoping recognized the failure of central planning as a development model. Today China is the world’s second-largest economy, and the range of choices open to consumers has greatly expanded under economic liberalization and trade.
MADRID | The Corner | Gloomy inflation data in the eurozone prompted a debate about recovery losing momentum. But while tackling disinflation should be a priority, we shouldn’t be too worried about growth. “Leading indicators of growth are not – at present – consistent with any major slowdown in the world economy. Indicators of financial and monetary conditions and many industrial metal prices are relaying a similar message,”analysts at UBS commented on Thursday.
HONG KONG | From Barclays analysts | China inflation fell further in September, to 1.6%, below consensus (1.7%), but in line with our forecast. The key downside drivers were lower commodity prices, and declining food inflation. Inflation has now fallen to its lowest levels since January 2010, a 56-month low.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | For the last 16 months the Fed has been on “tightening mode”. This is very clearly reflected in the chart for inflation expectations above. When Bernanke started the “taper talk” in May 13 inflation expectations came down and stayed down. Following the June 14 FOMC meeting, dedicated to discussions of “policy normalization” inflation expectations dived! How can they be surprised with the consequences.