China published its second-quarter GDP data on Monday with a big – but disappointing – number, 6.3% growth year on year. The reason for the disappointment comes from the hugely positive base effect, as last year’s second-quarter GDP growth was virtually because of the severe lockdowns happening in Shanghai and elsewhere in the country. The underwhelming growth in the second quarter is not all about the lack of external demand….
Renta 4| The rise of the S&P 500 is starting to show signs of excesses in the short term, such as the appearance of bearish divergences at high overbought levels or the excessive complacency readings in sentiment indicators. The proximity of a corrective leg in the coming weeks would not be surprising nor would it undermine the good momentum as long as the American benchmark remains above its main short-term…
Bankinter| According to data from the General Bureau of Customs, China’s trade surplus fell to $70.62 billion in June from $97.37 billion in the same period last year, a lower reading than the $74.8 billion expected by the analyst consensus, as exports fell more than imports, amid persistently weak global demand. Exports through customs fell by 12.4% year-on-year in June, a larger drop than the 9.5% expected by the consensus…
Banca March| The Fed has proposed, in its role as supervisor of the US banking sector, to apply stricter controls on capital levels to a larger number of institutions. This role will include, according to the new plan, those financial institutions with assets of at least $100 billion. According to Michael S. Barr, vice-president for supervision, with this new threshold, a greater number of institutions will be subject to stricter…
BancaMarch: Official data for June came in below expectations and the previous months’ figures were revised downwards. However, despite these data, the reading of the employment figures remains positive and shows a high level of dynamism. Specifically, 209,000 new jobs were created in June compared with 306,000 in the previous month and below the 230,000 expected. It should be noted that job creation in the private sector weakened more than…
Bankinter: The minutes of the Fed’s 13/14 June meeting show a broad consensus on the decision for a pause in rate hikes although a majority of directors (16 out of 18) believe that some additional rate hikes in the future from the current level of 5.00%-5.25% are appropriate. There is also a consensus that rates should remain in tightening territory until inflation reaches its 2% target. The minutes hardly change…
BancaMarch : The energy ministry of Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the OPEC+ cartel, announced that the one million barrels per day cut in July will be extended to August to support “the stability and balance of oil markets”. At the same time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced a reduction in the country’s output by an additional 500,000 barrels per day in August. Both announcements are part…
Banca March : In China this morning, manufacturing business confidence falls less than expected. Caixin’s manufacturing PMI index, which is more biased towards smaller companies, came in at 50.5 in June from 50.9 previously, but above the 50 expected. With this figure, business confidence remains in line with the expansion of activity in the sector, a far cry from the weakness shown by these indicators in other major world economies.
Bankinter | After the monetary policy panel with Lagarde (ECB), Powell (Fed), Bailey (BoE) and Ueda (BoJ), the messages of the last meetings were maintained, as expected. Lagarde, Powell and Bailey recalled that central banks are data dependent, that they take decisions “meeting by meeting” and that their work is not yet finished. Lagarde referred to a hike in July as quite likely, but did not give any guidelines for…
Renta 4: European markets open flat (Eurostoxx futures +0.3%, S&P futures +0.2%). In the background, promises of new stimulus measures in China by Prime Minister Li Qiang that could accelerate its economy in 2Q23 after the weakness shown by the latest data, although without any specifics. On the macroeconomic front, we highlight yesterday’s worse-than-expected deterioration in Germany’s IFO survey, weighed down by a weaker-than-expected opening of the Chinese economy, the…