Intermoney | Sacyr (Buy, PO 4.0 €) reported yesterday, with the market open, the commissioning of the last remaining sections of the Pamplona-Cúcuta road project in the Department of Norte de Santander (Colombia). The 62.6 km long road has 72.2 km of rehabilitated sections and 50.2 km of new construction and has required an investment of €592 million. The Group will manage the project until 2046 through the concessionaire Unión…
Norbolsa: The April employment report provided signs that the labour market is losing strength as job creation slowed in the month, below expectations (175,000 versus 240,000 against 303,000 previously revised downwards by 12,000) and the unemployment rate rebounded slightly (up 3.9% versus 3.8% year-on-year). Additionally, pressure on wages continued to moderate (up 0.2% month-on-month versus 0.3% year-on-year; up 3.9% year-on-year versus 4.1% year-on-year), a welcome move by the FED in…
Link Securitites | The company achieved a turnover of $18.501 billion in 1Q2024, 12% lower than in 1Q2023, EFE reported yesterday. In turn, ArcelorMittal achieved operating cash flow or EBITDA in 1Q2024 of $1,956 million, 8.6% lower than in the same period of 2023. Finally, the group’s attributable net profit amounted to $ 938 million (€875 million) in 1Q2024, 14.4% lower than in 1Q2023. It should also be noted that…
Renta 4: European stock markets open flat on a day that will be dominated by the official US employment report (14:30h), where moderation is expected (in line with Wednesday’s ADP private employment survey and JOLTS job openings), but showing a still solid labour market and tightening in wages (yesterday 1Q24 unit labour costs +4.7% year-on-year vs +4% estimated). Consensus expects 240,000 estimated non-farm payrolls versus 303,000 estimated previously, unemployment rate…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The Chinese economy has been decelerating for over a decade and will likely continue to do so, given the structural forces pushing it in this direction, such as an increasingly low return on assets but also aging. China’s single ‘silver bullet’ to mitigate such structural deceleration is innovation. To counter the downward pressures to development, and to increase domestic productivity, the central government is doubling…
Intermoney| As expected, imports subtracted from GDP, which was expected given the trade deficit. The trade drag took 0.86 p.p. off the growth rate. Paradoxically, strong imports reflect solid consumer demand, but they also detract from overall GDP growth. That is the trade-off. Net exports only grew by +0.9% quarter-on-quarter, which shows that a strong dollar seems to put some pressure on exports. Also note that inventories built up at…
Bert Flossbach (Flossbach von Storch) | The AI boom has also had an impact on the equity markets, and not just on the supposedly immediate winners. The valuation of US equities, which make up a good two-thirds of the MSCI World Index, has recently risen further and, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of 23.4, has reached an above-average level, even in an historical context. It is now common knowledge…
Bankinter: 1Q2024 results good, but guidance weak. The stock falls 15% in the aftermarket. Key figures vs. consensus (Bloomberg): Revenues $36.455M (up 27% year-on-year) vs. $36.125M consensus estimate and $34.500M/$37.000M by the Company, EBIT $13.818M (up 91%) vs. $13.400M and EBITDA $12.369M (up 117%) vs. $12.070M estimate. Daily active users reached 3,240M (up 7% year-on-year) vs. 3,190M in the previous quarter and 2,114M estimated. Average revenue per ad up 6%…
Intermoney | New home sales rebounded in March to 693,000, well above the 668,000 expected, but coming on the back of a downward revision of February sales by -25,000 (662,000). The point is that an acceleration was seen in quarterly terms with a March average of 667,000. For the moment, the housing sector looks set to remain a headache for the Federal Reserve. It is true that the supply of…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | After the Bank of Japan (BoJ) terminated the key non-conventional monetary policy tools in March, namely the negative policy rate and the yield curve control (YCC), evidence on a strengthening virtuous circle between inflation and wages has been limited. However, real wages -which fell by -1.8% year-on-year in February – are unlikely to turn positive soon. Furthermore, services inflation excluding imputed rent softened to +2.9%…