Bankinter | The group maintains its operating EBITDA guidance for the year as a whole at €1 billion (similar to 2024) with an average price of €60/MWh (down 13%) and production of 26 GW (up 9%). In terms of asset sales, it confirms its target of new transactions worth between €1.5 billion and €1.7 billion. It has already agreed transactions worth €750 million this year. The assets that have left the group are undoubtedly those of superior quality, but the fact is that the amounts obtained have surprised the market positively. Investment guidance has been moderated to €1.3 billion from an initial €1.5 billion. The group has temporarily halted two battery projects in the US due to the uncertainty generated by the Trump administration’s policies, reducing new capacity for the year to 0.6 GW from 1.0 GW.
Following these results, we maintain our Neutral recommendation with a target price of €23.50/share. Reasons: (i)Looking ahead to 2026, it will be difficult to see significant growth in operating EBITDA. On the one hand, capturing an average price above €60/MWh in 2025 will be an ambitious goal. Futures and most hedges or PPAs are within a range of €55-60/MWh. On the other hand, a more conservative policy on new investments could make it difficult to achieve an increase in consolidated production that offsets the loss of generation due to the sale of assets; (ii) Possibility of delays in the execution of the sale of assets. To achieve this year’s asset sale target, Acciona Energía would need to close between €750 million and €950 million in the last quarter, compared to €750 million closed by the end of August. The target is demandingand delays could occur; (iii) In the current market context, investors prefer to bet on other types of companies. They are leaning towards companies that are not affected by tariff policies, with visible cash flow generation and high dividends; (iv) Limited potential for appreciation at the target price (<5%).
