Intermoney | Aena (AENA) (Hold, Target Price €24) announced its passenger traffic figures for September 2025 on Monday when the market opened. Figures in Spain showed a increase of 2.6% last month, exceeding 30 million passengers, of which nearly 11.3 million were distributed between Barajas and El Prat, which increased their figures by slightly less than 1% and 4%, respectively.
Among the other major airports, Malaga (up 5%) and Alicante (6%) stood out. Others, such as Palma and Ibiza, recorded traffic increases of less than 1% compared to September 2024. So far this year, traffic has increased by 3.9%, with Barajas growing by one point less and El Prat in line with that percentage. Among Aena’s other assets, Brazil and Luton are up 5% for 2025 as a whole.
Assessment: Data without surprises last month, which saw a continuation of the expected moderation in growth from the double digits we saw a year ago. All in all, we are now seeing increases of less than 3%, which makes our forecast for the year as a whole of 3.7% seem quite reasonable. On 26 June, we downgraded our recommendation to Hold despite raising the PO to €24 from €21.5, given the recent strong performance of the share price, with the market now adequately valuing the stability of the company’s operations. We then increased our EBITDA forecast for 25-27 by 3%, implying a 10% CAGR 24-27.
The operator published its H1 figures on 30 July, showing that EBITDA grew by 9% to €1.692 billion. We have not included the operator’s recent announcements of future investments, including €10 billion in regulated businesses, in our forecasts, as further details are not yet available. However, we believe that, if carried out, they would jeopardise not only expansion abroad, but perhaps also the 80% payout commitment.
