Banc Sabadell | The outlook for Almirall (ALM) is positive at an operational level due to the favourable performance of Ebglyss (monoclonal antibody for atopic dermatitis), where we maintain our peak sales estimate of ~€450 million in 2029e, excluding potential additional indications under investigation (chronic rhinosinusitis, allergic rhinitis and the quarterly dosage for atopic dermatitis). Ilumetri also looks promising, where we continue to expect growth, albeit at a slower pace as it approaches its peak sales (~€301 million BS(e) versus guidance >€300 million). In the long term, Almirall maintains its guidance for double-digit sales growth through to 2030, which, combined with the operational leverage effect, we believe should enable it to reach the EBITDA margin target of ~25% in 2028 (in line with BS (expected); 400bp versus 2025).
We raise our Target Price by 16% to €14.50/share (27% upside potential) following a rollover and the incorporation of revised estimates. Almirall offers a defensive profile in the current volatile environment and, following its recent poor performance (negative 11% in 2026; negative 11% versus IBEX), we see attractive upside potential with the delivery of results this year and the fulfilment of its medium-term guidance.
Our valuation does not factor in the contribution of any of the compounds in the pipeline given the current low visibility, although they could open up new avenues for growth in the future. Almirall has several candidates in Phase I and II trials, notably an anti-IL-1RAP and an anti-IL-21 for hidradenitis suppurativa, a chronic inflammatory disease for which no treatment currently exists and which has an estimated market size of over €5 billion by 2030. Another possible catalyst would be a potential upward revision of the peak sales forecast for Ebglyss (>€450 million), which we believe will depend on the results of new indications from 2027 onwards.
