Q1 2026 results are broadly in line with our forecast and the consensus for net sales and EBITDA, whilst falling short on net profit. Net sales show growth of 2.2% (compared to 3.7% in our fourth-quarter estimate and 3.1% in the consensus), influenced by a one-off item last year and confirming a start to the year that has gone from strength to strength. By key products, Ilumetri recorded €61.6 million in revenue (in line with €62 million Renta 4 estimate), whilst Ebglys exceeded our estimates by reaching €41.9 million (versus €39 million Renta 4 estimate), having been launched in all key European markets. This leads the dermatology division in Europe to show growth of 19.3%.
As for margins, the gross margin deteriorated by 2.7 p.p. to 64.2% (in line with 64.1% Renta 4 estimate), due to higher royalty payments resulting from Ilumetri’s strong growth and also affected by the af orementioned one-off item. On the OpEx side,R&D and other overheads came in below forecast, leading to a smaller-than-expected decline in EBITDA (down 4.8% year-on-year), reaching €67.5 million (compared to €66.5 million in Renta 4 estimate and €66.7 million in the consensus) and equivalent to an EBITDA margin of 23.5%.
Strong OpEx management is expected to continue throughout the year, with growth below that of sales, following a period of higher investment to support the marketing of major launches.
Higher financial expenses, due to the equity swap’s contribution shifting from positive in Q1 2025 to negative in Q1 2026, explain why net profit came in well below expectations (down 15% compared to Renta 4 estimate and down 20% compared to consensus), with a year-on-year decline of 29% compared to Q1 2025.
Looking ahead to 2026, Almirall has reiterated its targets, with net sales growth guidance of 9-12% (in line with Renta 4’s 10.8% estimate) and an EBITDA range of €270-290 million (against Renta 4’s €268 million estimate, slightly below the lower end of the range).
The clinical development pipeline in 2026 will be marked by the start of six Phase 2 trials, with particular emphasis on the hidradenitis suppurativa area. We reiterate our OVERWEIGHT recommendation with a target price of €14 per share.
