Bankinter | Results exceed consensus estimates and the management team maintains its guidance for the year. Recurring net banking income falls by 11% in the period, compared to an estimated 13%. The contribution to EBITDA from regulated gas transport activity (74% of the total) fell by 10% as the regulated asset base (RAB) is lower due to no new investments being necessary in the network and also receiving a lower Continuity of Supply Remuneration (CSR) this year. In addition, the contribution from international subsidiaries is down 18% in the period, mainly due to the sale of subsidiaries (TallGrass and Soto la Marina).
On the positive side, financial costs are down (30%) thanks to lower net debt due to cash inflows from the sale of Tallgrass in the second half of last year and lower costs. The management team maintains its guidance for 2025, with ordinary net profit reaching €265 million (15%) and a dividend per share of €1.00. Following these results, we maintain our Buy recommendation. The dividend yield is attractive, the risk of investments in Peru has been reduced, and investments in green hydrogen could be a medium/long-term opportunity. At current prices, the dividend yield is 7.0% until 2026. If dividend cuts were to occur from 2026 onwards to cover green hydrogen investments, the yield would remain attractive (we estimate > 5.00%).
As for Peru, the risk has been reduced following the favourable ruling by ICSID (International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes), which has allowed it to repatriate to Spain a large part of the dividends it had retained in Peru from TGP. There are still some uncertainties on the horizon for the group, such as regulatory uncertainty regarding CSR for the next regulatory period 2027-2032 and the investment schedule and future remuneration scheme for green hydrogen.
