Renta 4 | IAG (IAG) will publish its Q4 25 results on Friday 27 February before the market opens and will hold a conference call at 9:45 a.m. Target price €5.30/share, Overweight.
We expect traffic data to continue growing at a low single digit in Q4: capacity 2.3% and demand 2% compared to Q4 24 to meet its 2025 capacity target of 2.5% compared to 2024. We estimate that unit fare revenue will decline by 4% compared to Q4 24 and that total unit revenue will decline by 3.7%.
We expect a moderate decline in unit expenses excluding fuel of 0.7%, which would confirm the 2025e guidance (up 3% compared to 2024). Lower fuel prices and hedging at lower prices should allow total unit expenses to decline by 0.6% compared to Q4 24.
We expect EBIT before extraordinary items, the main operating figure, to reach €1,040 million (compared to €1,121 million in Q4 24), slightly below the consensus forecast of €1,077 million.
At the Conference (Friday 27, 9:45 a.m.), we will be watching for: 1) 2026 guidance. We expect capacity growth of over 3% compared to 2025, very moderate growth in unit revenues and moderation in the growth of unit costs excluding fuel, leading to low single-digit growth in EBIT before extraordinary items in 2026 compared to 2025. 2) Market conditions. We expect the positive tone to continue, supported by favourable demand expectations and control of flight supply (capacity) and 3) possible announcement of a new share buyback plan. In R4, we discount €1.0 billion in buybacks in 2026. P.O. €5.30, Overweight.
