Renta 4 | On Monday after the market close, Repsol released figures corresponding to Q3’22, where the price of Brent (100,8 USD/b) rose 37.1% year-on-year and fell 11.5% quarter-on-quarter, and the price of gas (8,2 USD/Mbtu) was up 105% year-on-year and 13.9% quarter-on-quarter. These figures compare with the company’s guidelines for 2022, where it considers levels of 70 USD/b and 3,7 USD/Mtbu, while sensitivity to the price of Brent is +540 million euros in operating CF for every 10 USD rise in the barrel. Meanwhile in the case of Henry Hub it is 164 million euros for every 0,5 dollar of an increase.
With regard to the dollar, this has appreciated 14.7% vs Q3’21 and 5% quarter-on-quarter. We should remember that an appreciation of 10% in the exchange rate has an impact of +350 million euros on EBITDA.
As far as production goes, 549.000 b/d (+3.6% vs Q3’21 and +1.7% quarter-on-quarter) vs the yearly guideline for 600.000 b/d.
The recovery in refining margins continues, going from 3,2 USD/b in Q3’21 to 12,7 USD/b in Q3’22, -45.5% vs Q2’22 and +317.5% vs the yearly guide of 4 USD/b. In this sense, the sensitivity is +92 million euros for every 0,5 USD of an increase in the refining margin. The Q3’22 results will be released on 27 October. And they will be positively impacted by higher crude and gas prices, as well as bigger refining margins.
Valuation:
Positive. Repsol has presented a trading statement, giving us an advance of spectacular third quarter results. Taking into acccount the sensitivity to variations in the prices of raw materials, refining margins and the appreciation of the dollar, Repsol would clock up an estimated record EBITDA of 12.955 billion euros in 2022.
The only negative aspect is that the equivalent production of barrels in the period is -6.95% below expectations. And this figure gives us a certain amount of concern, because for the third consecutive quarter it is very much lower than Repsol’s guidelines. And the production target of 600.000 b/d for the year might not be achieved.
