Jefferies | Rather uninspiring results. Net profit forecasts were exceeded by 4%, driven exclusively by an improvement in impairment provisions, with a Q1 2026 CoR of 20 bps, which is performing better than the forecast for the 2026 financial year, which was less than 30 bps. Interestingly, loan yields rose by 2 bps during the quarter, thanks to positive effects from the portfolio mix (a higher proportion of corporate loans relative to mortgages), but this was offset by a rise in deposit costs, due to campaigns carried out during the quarter. Forecasts for the 2026 financial year were reiterated, and most business lines performed in line with or better than in the first quarter.
In the first quarter of 2026, Unicaja recorded a net profit of €161 million, 4% above the market forecast of €155 million, thanks to an improvement in impairment provisions. Profit before tax exceeded forecasts by 5%, whilst profit before provisions did so by 1%. Both income and expenses were in line with market forecasts.
Net interest margin was in line with forecasts, with a 1% quarter-on-quarter decline and a 1% year-on-year increase. Customer spreads remained stable during the quarter; however, it is worth noting that loan yields rose by 2 basis points, whilst the cost of deposits also increased by 2 basis points during the quarter. This is due to the deposit-raising campaigns carried out during the quarter. The Asset and Liability Management Committee (ALCO) portfolio volume increased by €100 million during the quarter.
Net fee and commission income was in line with consensus forecasts, with positive momentum in asset management and insurance fees, although banking fees continue to lag behind. Fees are growing by 2% year-on-year, compared to LSD’s forecasts for the 2026 financial year.
Total costs were in line with consensus forecasts, with year-on-year growth of 5%, in line with forecasts for the 2026 financial year.
The total impairment charge of €43 million is below the €52 million forecast by the consensus, and does not include any restructuring costs this quarter. The CoR for the quarter was 20 bp. Other provisions for the first quarter of 2026 amounted to €20 million.
Loans to customers were 1% below consensus forecasts, with a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 2% year-on-year increase. Customer deposits (including repurchase agreements) were 2% above consensus forecasts, with a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 1% year-on-year decrease.
Capital: The fully calculated CET1 ratio stood at 16%, representing a 20-basis-point difference from the consensus, with a CET1 ratio 1% higher and risk-weighted assets 1% lower.
The adjusted return on equity for the first quarter of 2026 was 12%, compared with the reported 10%.
The forecast for 2026 is reiterated: net interest income is expected to exceed the 2025 level. Year-on-year growth in fees is forecast at 1.5%, year-on-year growth in costs at 2.5%, and the operating cost margin is forecast to be less than 30 basis points. Net profit is expected to be higher than in 2025. A payout policy of 95%, of which 70% in the form of dividends.
