Caixabank, Telefónica, El Corte Inglés or Iberdrola are some of the companies which are best prepared to confront a year which will serve as a point of inflection for the economy facing the uncertainties, both national and international, which will end up damaging economic growth. This is revealed in the latest report of the consultancy Advice Strategic Consultants, which takes the consensus that the Spanish economy will grow 2.1% this year and 1.8% the year after, compared to 2.6% GDP growth last year. Among the principle causes which are slowing growth is the “prudence” with which consumers are facing this forecast, which makes them reduce their consumption and their intention to buy. In this sense, retail sells grew 1.1% in November compared to 2.3% the previous month.
In this context a fall in the housing market is also being observed. These negative effects are being provoked by the trade war launched by the US, the impact on employment of digital transformation and the automation of the economy or the minimal recovery in wages – 22.3% of the Spanish population remains in risk of poverty. At the same time, the forecasts about increases in interest rates in the Eurozone, despite being ever more put off, will impact on the most indebted households and companies: stock market values are falling – the Ibex 35 lost 15% in 2018; and debt, despite being reduced, remains at 97% of GDP.
Ranking of companies
Faced with this situation, the study of Advice, basing itself on the 100 components of GDP and 5,200 questionnaires with companies, people and leaders of opinion and applying some economic models inspired by various Nobel laureates, has analysed which companies are best prepared to confront these two years of transition these two years of economic transition in Spain. In the banking sector, which directly contributes 3.5% to GDP, and another 3% indirectly through the financing of companies and households, Caixabank, with a 29.4% share of the market, is the entity best prepared in a ranking where Santander, BBVA, Bankinter, Sabadell and Bankia also appear.
In telecommunications, Telefónica appears in first place, followed by other operators like Orange, Vodafone, MásMóvil or Euskaltel, in a sector which with Digital and Information Technologies contributes 4.9% to GDP. In the large scale retail sector, which contributes 7.1% to the Spanish economy, El Corte Inglés is the best prepared company for the next two years, whereas Inditex leads the commerce sector.
Within the energy sector, which amounts to 2.3% of Spanish GDP, Iberdrola heads a list in which also are found Naturgy, Endesa, EDP and Repsol. In addition, in Tourism the Barceló chain leads; in the car industry, SEAT; in infrastructure, Abertis; in food, Calidad Pascual; in insurance, Pelayo; and the Third Sector, the Banking Foundation La Caixa.