China’s trade balance deepens economic slowdown

Renta 4: Stock markets point to a flat opening (Eurostoxx futures -0.07%), after a Monday session where there were no major corporate references after the conclusion of the 2Q23 results season (in the absence of Bayer today). In China, weak July trade balance figures were published, with exports falling at their fastest pace since February 2020 (-14.5% vs 12.5% estimated and 12.4% previously) and imports surprisingly down when an improvement was expected (-12.4% vs -5.0% estimated and -6.8%).

Investors’ attention this week will be focused on new price references that confirm the pace of inflation deceleration. In this regard, we will have the final July CPI data for Germany, both year-on-year (+6.2% preliminary vs +6.4% previously) and monthly (+0.3% preliminary and previous), while the German 30-year bond reaches 2014 highs (2.69%).

Finally, we learned of an interview published in the New York Times with New York Fed President John Williams (interview conducted on 2 August and published on 7 August), in which he showed confidence that core inflation was on a downward path, also stating that we could be quite close to the “peak rate” of interest rates in the US.

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The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.