Renta 4 | After a session with almost no movement yesterday in Europe, today we are back on track with Wall Street (which will only open for half a session after yesterday’s Thanksgiving closure).
We would also like to remind you that today marks the start of the Christmas sales season with Black Friday, followed by Cyber Monday on Monday, which will shed light on the evolution of American private consumption (70% of GDP).
Internationally, we highlight Trump’s intention to intensify his fight against immigration (he advocates ‘return migration’), as well as Japan’s decision to issue more short-term debt to finance its new stimulus plan and in view of the lack of investor appetite for longer maturities.
On the macro level, today we will have various inflation indicators in the Eurozone. First, we will have the ECB’s 1- and 3-year CPI expectations, with a forecast of further moderation, although they are still above their 2% target (2.6%e versus 2.7% previously and 2.5% estimated previously, respectively). Preliminary CPI figures for November will also be published in Germany (2.4%e versus 2.3% previously), France (1.0%e versus 0.9% previously), and Spain (overall 3.0% estimated versus 3.1% previously and underlying 2.6%e versus 2.5% previously). These data will continue to be compatible with the ECB maintaining rates at 2% (deposit rate), especially after yesterday’s release of the minutes of the October meeting, which showed no changes from the growth and inflation forecasts presented in September (inflation could fall below 2% in 2026 and then return to the 2% target in 2027). All of this continues to suggest that the cycle of rate cuts may be over unless there is some external shock.
Similarly, in Japan, we have seen inflation data for Tokyo showing stability in November: overall 2.7% and core 2.8%, in line with forecasts and previous data, price levels that support the probability of a 25 bp rise at the BoJ meeting on 19 December, currently at 57%.
Looking ahead to the weekend, on Sunday in China we will see preliminary November PMI data, which will continue to show an economy in need of additional stimulus: composite (previous 50), manufacturing (49.4e vs previous 49) and services (previous 50.1). In addition, we will have the OPEC+ meeting, which we expect to reiterate its already announced intention to curb production increases in Q1 2026 in a context of supply surplus and pending the definition of the peace agreement for Ukraine and to see what its implications are for the crude oil markets.
