Morgan Stanley analysis
Alain Gabriel (Morgan Stanley analyst) reiterates that ArcelorMittal remains his preferred way to invest in European reindustrialisation, highlighting its base of approximately 30 million tonnes of shipments in Europe and its spare capacity, which provide it with scale and flexibility.
He notes that fiscal support and an increasingly assertive industrial policy under the “Made in Europe” concept – including local content requirements in public procurement, greater supply chain security, stricter rules of origin, a gradual expansion of the CBAM to downstream steel-intensive products, and a more restrictive safeguard regime – could accelerate industrial reshoring.
In this scenario, European steelmakers would benefit both from a recovery in domestic demand and from import substitution.
Recommendation: Overweight, Target Price: €70 per share
