While Yellen bet on increasing rates, China’s slowdown concerns Draghi, but he is not thinking about further stimulus for the moment, says Gabriel Marqués at Intermoney.
Q: Can Draghi surprise the markets with some measure?
A: At the moment it’s all about making gestures, nothing will change in the short-term. Markets are speculating buying corporate debt, but even so it’s still a bit too soon because the QE programme has some time to run yet. The issue of inflation has to be taken into account if further stimulus is being considered. Now energy prices are very low and are down 5% in the Chinese market.
Q: What will the ECB have thought about the Fed’s decision?
A: The Fed’s decision is coherent with the markets where there is currently a lot of tension. But rate stability benefits the ECB because it affects dollar-denominated debt.
Q: What can happen in the coming months?
A: We are forecasting rate hikes this year after Yellen’s statements. Furthermore, some important data will be published in the U.S. in the next three months, particularly relating to the labour market. If the indicators are still solid, rates will rise.
