Investors are beginning to show greater concern about the impact that high energy prices may have on inflation figures and, consequently, on monetary policy, pushing yields upwards.
Report by Renta 4
Flat opening in European markets (Eurostoxx futures up 0.2%) but with falls in US futures (S&P down 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.5%) and in Asia (Kospi 3%) in markets that are tempering their enthusiasm for AI and beginning to show greater concern about the impact that high energy prices may have on inflation data and, consequently, on monetary policy, pushing yields upwards. In the case of the US 30-year bond, yields hit 2007 highs (5.14%), whilst the Japanese 30-year bond reached its highest level in the historical series (since 1999); meanwhile, the UK stands out negatively in Europe, as the effects of the war in the Middle East are compounded by an unprecedented political crisis, which became more evident following the local elections on 7 May.
Yesterday saw a highly volatile session for Brent, which traded within a range of $107–113 per barrel (closing down 2% after rising 2% at the start of the session) amid rumours first of dialogue in the Middle East (suggesting that Iran would be willing to a phased truce, with a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a long-term freeze on its nuclear programme rather than a complete dismantling, with enriched uranium being transferred to Russia), which then gave way to doubts about an imminent agreement after the White House deemed the latest Iranian proposal wholly insufficient. This morning, Brent is down 1% (at $110/barrel) following Trump’s statement affirming that, at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, he will not carry out the attack on Iran planned for today and will postpone it by two or three days, as the leaders of these countries believe that serious negotiations are underway that will lead to an agreement acceptable to all parties. Should this not be the case, Trump is once again threatening a major attack.
Today’s macroeconomic data releases are of limited significance, with the highlight in Japan being the preliminary Q1 2026 GDP, up 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (0.4% estimated versus 0.2% previously) and 2.1% year-on-year (1.7% estimated against 0.8% previously), better-than-expected data (though partly offset by the downward revision of previous figures) that could lead the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its next meeting (16 June, 80% probability of a 25-bp hike).Of greater interest today will be the corporate front, where we will pay particular attention to the first results from US retailers, which will give us an idea of the health of US consumer spending and the potential impact of inflation (keep an eye on guidance). Today it is Home Depot’s turn.
