Report by Banco Sabadell
José Manuel Entrecanales, having defined renewables as assets for national security, has invited expressions of interest in Acciona Energía and continues to evaluate various strategic alternatives. Currently, all options are on the table: launching a takeover bid for 100% and delisting the company, the possible inclusion of a major shareholder, a sale to a third party, a spin-off or a merger with the parent company or a third party, as well as maintaining the status quo.
For the time being, Acciona is reported to have contacted several investors through its advisory investment banks (Goldman Sachs and Citigroup) to solicit expressions of interest and offers for its renewable energy subsidiary, in which it holds a 91% stake. These are expected to be received before August, with Acciona due to make a decision from September onwards.
Assessment: The full sale of the renewable energy subsidiary is not our base case, and Acciona Energía’s potential request for bids to gauge market valuation is part of a normal strategic review process for a subsidiary. In this regard, we consider it unlikely that any alternative would prevent Acciona from retaining control of Acciona Energía in the face of potential new equity partners. In the scenario where Acciona were to buy 100%, at current prices this would amount to around €660 million (it would increase ANA’s debt by +9.3% and leave the leverage ratio at approximately 3x EBITDA). Selling 40% at current prices would cost the parent company around €2.9 billion (c.28% DFN) and would leave the leverage ratio below 2x EBITDA.
