Morgan Stanley | Alain Gabriel summarises the various changes in the European market environment that we could see during the year. Starting with the review of import quotas, which expire in June 2026, and whose review ends on 31 March 2025.
Alain believes there is potential for a reduction in quotas, implementation of quotas on an individual level and/or tariff increases. An anti-dumping investigation of HRCs from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam is also underway, which would last until October 2025. The outcome could be material for the market, as 40’% of HRC imports in 2024 have come from these countries. CBAM is due to start on 1 January 2026 and would replace the quota system (safeguards) that applies today. CBAM is under review, with respect to several points highlighted during the transition period.
In summary, Alain believes that the business environment is improving, and will ultimately favour domestic companies. He also highlights the thesis of the Chinese materials team, which suggests a reduction in exports, as another factor that would favour the sector in Europe. Arcelor and Volestalpine are the companies best positioned to take advantage of these improvements.