Observers’ expectations expelled this week pessimism about the unemployment figures in the last three months that the Spanish government will soon release. BNP Paribas analysts, too, point at a further fall in jobs up to 26 percent from the 25 percent recorded in September 2012.
As in the case of other southern European economies, the destruction of jobs in Spain has expanded at a higher rate than its GDP contraction. But BNP Paribas said Monday in an investor report that the situation should improve before summer. The Spanish GDP would be flat, and so cuts in employee numbers could be much milder. Spain could again see job creation in less than 21 months, when the GDP will increase to slightly less than 1.5 percent.
“It must be noted that macroeconomic conditions have not justified the level of unemployment in Spain,” BNP Paribas said. “With a more flexible labour market now,” experts explained in a clear reference to the reforms introduced by the current government, “a quick recovery would be in the cards.”