Experts at Santander said on Tuesday that September PMI was a test gauge to see “how far the ECB is prepared to increase its rhetoric about a QE programme of governance.” With these results, with Germany shrinking and with France in contraction territory, it is quite likely that the Quantitative Easing is in fact closer to become a reality. Market watchers at Barclays also bet on this option last week, and added that the ECB would “purchase Member State’s national bonds.”
Analysts from Morgan Stanley strongly support the idea that countries such as France and Italy, and even Greece (despite its reforms) are left behind, while Spain, Ireland and Portugal together with strong structurally countries such as Belgium will take the lead towards growth in Europe. These experts add that this growth pattern will continue during 2015 and 2016:
1. Even though Spain’s starting point is more difficult than Italy’s, its bigger growth and lower indebtedness will help the country to have a much better behaviour in markets.
2. The debt/GDP ratio in Belgium will drop below France’s ratio in the next years in all possible scenarios.
3. In relative terms, Portugal offers a higher yield than Italy, and it is the best option to follow a “carry and roll” strategy.