A&G | Last week we saw the US 2 year rate move above the 10 year rate. We refer to this phenomenon as a yield curve inversion and it has historically been a leading indicator of recessions, but a very leading indicator. We should bear in mind that the sample is very small, as we only have data for 10 recessions and all 10 have been preceded by an inverted…
AXA IM | The past year has witnessed something of a turn-around in investors’ perceptions of the economic and financial outlook, chiefly on the back of hopes that the cloud of secular stagnation may be starting to dissipate. In our 2017 outlook, we take a step back from current market jitters and examine the fundamentals behind the present backdrop of ultra-low interest rates and poor economic growth. Simply we challenge the dominant idea that this is the fate of our future as investors.
Julius Baer | For the market, the additional budget package is insufficient to stimulate the economy but seemingly too much to leave yields where they are.
By Sreekala Kochugovindan, Anando Maitra (Barclays) | History highlights the importance of the business cycle in determining the effect of rising rates on asset returns, a topic we discussed in depth in Scenarios for a shifting bond landscape. We examined US data since 1925 and selected episodes where US Treasuries sold off by more than 5% in one year. The results were pretty mixed, with equity returns ranging between plus and minus 50% and providing no consistent pattern.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | ECB’s Mario Draghi brought put the bleak panorama that the Eurozone’s economy is facing on the table, and we saw it again reflected in the not-so-promising September manufacturing PMI. The index came in at 50.5 compared to 50.7 in the prior month, whereas EZ Services PMI accelerated at 52.8 for September versus 53.1 in August. Even the composite index plummeted to its lowest fee in the last nine months and reached 52.3. In Germany, both manufacturing and services indexes have also decreased; while in France only manufacturing improved, although it is still contracting.
MADRID | The Corner | Peripheral equities and bonds have been strongly favored by Draghi’s speech last Friday at Jackson Hole with intense improvements in sovereign credits from Portugal, Spain and Italy, which have reached record lows. In particular, Spain’s 10-year bonds yields are at 2.12% under the 2.38% of comparable U.S. Treasuries and especially today the Spanish Treasury has reduced sharply the interest rates of three- and nine-months bills in an auction of € 3,500 million at historical lows, without entering in negative territory like on the secondary market. Nevertheless, UBS strategists are starting to change their bullish view on peripheral Europe basing on market and fundamental arguments.
MADRID | The Corner | Thursday was shelter assets’ day due to the tragedy of the Malaysian Airlines passenger hit by a missile in Ukraine, the hardening of the Russia sanctions and the worsening of the conflict in Palestine, analists at Bankinter commented. The Bund reached a new historic low of 1.14% (the previous record was 1.17%) and the yen and Swiss franc appreciated up to approx. 137 and 1.214 respectively.
LONDON | For all the mayhem some peripheral countries of the euro zone are meant to be causing nowadays, a few investor notes circulate throughout the City with eager eyes looking into opportunities in the European Union. For instance, at investing house Fidelity, analysts pondering about equity income say that the euro region’s debt crisis appears to have gone into a period of remission after the combined impact of a…