Bankinter | Growth lost momentum in Q4 2025, as expected, but the unemployment rate returned to historic lows in December.
Preliminary GDP was up 1.3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, in line with expectations and compared to 1.4% previously. The unemployment rate was 6.2% in December, compared to the estimated and previous rate of 6.3%.
Bankinter analysis team’s view: European growth continues to be led by the peripheral countries. Spain and Portugal are maintaining growth rates of around 2.5%, and Ireland is approaching 4.0%. France and Germany, despite gaining some momentum, remain below the European average. France managed to grow by 1.1% (from 0.9%), and Germany consolidated at around 0.4%, after closing 2024 and 2023 in contraction.
The surprise came on the unemployment front. It returned to historic lows (6.2%) in December. A solid labour market and low inflation (1.9% in December) provide further arguments for the ECB to maintain its stable monetary policy (current key rate 2.00%/2.15%).
