Bankinter | February’s Trade Balance and Industrial Production, not yet affected by the new tariff environment. (i) Industrial Production -down 4.0% in February against the 3.6% drop estimated and 1.6% previous. (ii) Trade balance €17.7 billion against €18.5 billion estimated and €16.2 billion previous (revised from €16 billion). Exports up 1.8% month-on-month versus 1.5% estimated and 0.0% previous (revised from 2.5% down). Imports up 0.7% month-on-month against the 0.4% drop estimated and the 5.0% rise previous (revised from a 1.2% rise).
Bankinter analysis team’s view: It should have a neutral impact on stock markets and bonds. The data refer to the month of February, i.e. before Trump started to impose tariffs (4 March) and, therefore, do not provide visibility on their possible impact on the economy.
