Banca March : The forecasts of the Bank of Spain and the OECD, the bitter and the sweet. Regarding economic growth, the Bank of Spain forecasts values for this year identical to those estimated in the last projection, namely 2.3%. However, expectations for the variation in GDP for the coming years fall (1.8% compared with 2.2% in 2024 and 2% compared with 2.1% in 2025). In the case of the OECD, the expected rise in Spanish GDP this year is also 2.3%, two tenths of a percentage point higher than in its previous report. In this way, Spain leads the growth of developed economies, ahead of the US and the main member countries of the eurozone. The data are less encouraging for Italy and Germany. The former registers a growth forecast four tenths of a percentage point lower than the previous one (0.8%) and the latter goes from stagnation to decline (-0.2%).
As for inflation, measured by the harmonised CPI, the Bank of Spain’s figures are 3.6% in 2023 (instead of 3.2%), with a rebound to 4.3% in 2024. The inflation target of around 2% will not be reached until 2025, at 1.8%. As far as the OECD is concerned, the outlook for Spain is 3.5% and 3.4% for 2023 and 2024, respectively. In relative terms, the country is in a favourable position this year compared with the euro area as a whole (2 p.p. higher) and with the G-20 (2.5 p.p. higher).