Banca March : The forecasts of the Bank of Spain and the OECD, the bitter and the sweet. Regarding economic growth, the Bank of Spain forecasts values for this year identical to those estimated in the last projection, namely 2.3%. However, expectations for the variation in GDP for the coming years fall (1.8% compared with 2.2% in 2024 and 2% compared with 2.1% in 2025). In the case of the…
BancaMarch: The Bank of Spain raises its GDP growth forecast to 2.3%. This was stated by the agency in its recent publication of macro projections, in which its GDP forecast for Spain for the current year rises from 1.6% to 2.3%. It also expects inflation to fall faster than expected this year, to close at 3.2% on average, as well as forecasting growth above 2% every year until 2025. On…
The Bank of Spain estimates that the government will allocate between €34,000 and €40,000 million in measures to deal with the energy and inflation crises arising from the war in Ukraine between 2021 and 2025 and, of this total, only between 15% and 20% has been targeted at the most vulnerable incomes, meaning that between 80% and 85% is of a generalised nature. The largest impact would be concentrated in…
Fernando González Urbaneja | The Bank of Spain’s Annual Report, usually issued in May/June, is the canonical report for economic experts, the one used as a reference for all those who want to have an informed opinion. This does not mean that it is infallible, but it does mean that it is reliable and trustworthy. Some of the all-knowledgeable people who take up space on television this morning said that…
The Bank of Spain calculates that updating pensions with 7% inflation would cost the public accounts some 12,600 million, following the entry into force of the pension reform that involves revaluing pensions in accordance with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to the central bank, taking as a starting point the approximate expenditure on pensions in Spain and an average inflation for the whole year 2022 of 7% (November over…
On 7 September, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, which means that companies and businesses in the country are obliged to accept it as a form of payment in day-to-day transactions. However, in this country there are only four Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency ATMs (machines where users can buy or sell cryptocurrencies). The US is the country with the most cryptocurrency…
The Bank of Spain presented the update on its growth forecasts for the period 2020-2022, formulating two alternative scenarios. They provide a range of negative growth for GDP in Q3 of 9.5%-12.3% year-on-year (equivalent to quarterly advances of 16.6% and 13% respectively). On the other hand, it flags the upward risk of the various initiatives implemented at a European level, mainly the European Recovery Fund.
Yesterday, it was confirmed the historical collapse of Spanish GDP: it declined 5.2% until March due to Covid-19, its biggest quarterly fall recorded in the historical series. With a contraction of the activivity in the second quarter greater than that in the first taken for granted, Spain is facing a recession. In this context, the Bank of Spain argues that the only way to bring the country’s accounts back under control after the pandemic will be the combination of fiscal adjustment and structural reforms.
The Bank of Spain has decided to maintain the counter-cyclical capital buffer applicable to credit exposures in Spain at 0% during the third quarter of the year. It will probably also do the same in the coming quarters due to the current context of the coronavirus crisis as the severe macroeconomic and financial impact of the Covid-19 crisis require credit institutions to maintain the flow of financing to the real economy. The aim of the counter-cyclical capital buffer is to reinforce the solvency of the banking system in phases of excessive credit growth.
Following the publication of the Financial Stability report, Bank of Spain governor Pablo Hernández de Cos highlights the significant increase in public debt, which will have to be faced once the crisis is over. The governor points out that it will be necessary to implement a medium-term fiscal consolidation programme and implement the necessary structural reforms.